Budget Hopes and Hypes

Fiscal balance

Union Budget 2014-15 was more on aspirations. It had to address the legacy issues. But 2015-16 Budget in the wake of series of policy announcements by the NDA government during the last nine months has promised to be progressive and inspirational. The recent statements of FM leave more expectations on this count.

Notwithstanding the hope of the World Bank President the dragging growth in farm and manufacturing sectors is still a matter of great concern and this led to pragmatic low pitch by the RBI at 5.5-5.7 percent growth at the end of this fiscal.

Inflation has come down but the fundamentals are still weak; gross domestic savings has not improved markedly; credit has not picked up. The domestic food and vegetable prices are yet to record the type of decline that would give confidence to the RBI to tame further the lending rates.

The 14^th Finance Commission handed over its Report to the President. Once it is tabled in the Budget session, the new formula of dispensation of resources among the States and Union and between the States and the sub-states would lead the budget formulations.

Expectations on the Finance Minister:

Ten Point Agenda for MSMEs in Brand India way

New Year leaves many in hope with the MSMEs no exception. Their share in GDP at around 8% currently has prospects of moving to 15% by 2020 according to a KPMG-CII Study in October 2014. Hopes are built on the double digit growth of a few manufacturing sectors by that time and the FDI interventions in defense, pharma and infrastructure sectors. Not so encouraging, however, is the decline in credit growth in the manufacturing sector from 13.7%  a year ago to 7.3% in December 2014.

The Government has no doubt infused some confidence building measures, like a few start-up Funds for SC entrepreneurs, revisiting the definition of the MSMEs and credit policies. Action seems to be far slower than announcements. Even earlier there were 32 Funds announced for the sector at different points of time that did not create the impact one would expect.

At least ten things need to be done by the Government if the MSMEs should move to building brand image for India and they will be all in any case, Make-in-India only.

New Year Bites 2015

For the New Year:

Year 2014 can be termed as year in waiting. People waited with bated breath for the policy paralysis to end and for the economy to start growing to its potential. Post elections, the wait did not however end. There have been announcements more than achievements and promises more than performance. 2015 would therefore be a demanding year for the rulers.

The crude shocks elsewhere brought some cheer to India in containing its current account deficit and inflation that touched unsustaining levels in March 2014. Stock markets reacted favourably with the indices taking the highest ever jump of 6000 since the last General Elections. They shocked the investors with a peak in the crash on the 7^th January 2015 led by yet another decline in global oil prices and other commodity prices.

Banking on cooperatives is better business

Cooperatives are wealth creators:

The need for cooperatives in wealth creation arises mainly due to the reason that a cooperative can create more value or surplus than the individual can. Conceptually, if a cooperative is well run, it will bring more benefits to its members. The organization and management of a cooperative enterprise, however, is complex. It is more complex in the case of rural cooperative credit structure as (1) this structure is part of the overall financial structure and has a contributory responsibility to the financial stability (2) it has to abide by the regulatory policy and procedures and (3) its capital structure demands continuing infusion of capital under Basel III.

Crude Shocks keep India in Smiles

B. Yerram Raju  & Nitin Gupta*

“The economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market will be healthier,” says the Economist (December 6, ’14). Is this the beginning of cheap oil regime or just an interlude between two big bumps?

2013, in retrospect,  had turned out to be the strongest year of recovery, with growing US Economy and stabilizing Chinese economy. Commodity prices were projected to remain flat with an up-side risk due to unexpected supply-side shocks.

Enter December 2014 and all the projections seem little more than wishful thinking. IMF went on record recently: “the global economic growth may never return to pre-crisis levels” ! All the Quantitative Easing (QE) from the US (3 till now – totaling over $ 4 trillion or, twice that of the entire Indian economy) which was supposed to push cash to banks ended up just in increased valuations and stock indices accompanied by higher prices of gold and other commodities. Emerging economies like India had to contend with high inflation. Some even said: it is ‘US Fed exported inflation’!

Rural Cooperatives

Rural Cooperative Credit Structure beg for urgent reforms

Cooperatives with their spread are the best means for reaching the goals of financial inclusion and Jan-Dhan.

Their form and content needs change. Meaningful recommendations of Vaidyanathan Committee have been implemented more in breach. The States that received the reform package have breached on the MOUs and misspent the grant released and NABARD also did not put its heart in the monitoring of the grant assistance.

GOI should recall the grant assistance from all these states or should give them an year's time to re-engineer the rural cooperative credit structure to the promised health. 

The vast potential of cooperatives can be fully utilised only through de-bonding them from the politicians and vested interests and by ushering in legal and governance reforms. 

SBI should keep its eyes and ears open

Efficiency of banks does not go by the size of capital but by the performance and perception of the customer. SBI chairman, Arundhati Bhattacharya at the Delhi Economic Conclave sidelines has been arguing for freedom to decide on mergers and acquisitions be left to the banks themselves. Yes, it is the banks concerned and their boards that should take a responsible call on the issue. Has SBI taken stock of the issues that came up in its acquisition of the two of its Associates and the HR problems it had to handle and perhaps continuing to handle? Does it have a discussion forum where the customers and clients of the merged banks would also have a say? SBIs' ATMs are most times inefficient delivery points. They bask under the glory of their associate bank ATMs. Their attention to the customers has much to comment. Their corporate loans are the big ticket NPAs because of unperceived credit risks and poor due diligence. They are living by legacy.

Fast Tracking Financial inclusion

Jan-Dhan has been announced from the ramparts of Red Fort on August 15, 2014 and quickly made inroads into the field on no-holds barred approach the first ever, since the announcement of Financial Inclusion by Y. V. Reddy, the former Governor, RBI in 2005. The Committee on Financial Inclusion under the Chairmanship of Dr Rangarajan said: ‘Financial Inclusion is no longer an option, but a necessity.’ NABARD Report in 2008 gave a working definition later: “Financial inclusion may be defined as the process of ensuring access to financial services and timely and adequate credit where needed by vulnerable groups such as weaker sections and low income groups at an affordable cost.” Had the Banks implemented the Differential Rate of Interest Scheme[1] (still in the RBI statutes) been implemented by the banks, monitored and regulated by the RBI, the Prime Minister Modi would not have had the good luck of taking this lame duck of financial inclusion under the new garb with such gusto. The credit limit for the Jan-Dhan scheme second dose is incidentally the same as the revised DRI limit of Rs.15,000 in 2010. What R.K. Hazare proposed in 1970s has been disposed by M.V. Nair in 2012.