Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Enable MSEs breath fresh air



B. Yerram Raju
Banks want to revive. Large industry wants to revive. Firms like Jet Airways, Zee, Essar Steel and the big are given breather by the Banks and they are all NPAs for more than a year. Reserve Bank of India also encourages Banks to come out of the red. But when it comes to the micro and small enterprises (MSE) who have been vendors to the large firms and part of the supply chain, Banks almost shut the doors.


Interesting backdrop emerges from the latest Financial Stability Report. Discussing the sectoral deployment of Gross Bank Credit, exposure to industry sector expanded by 2.3% in Q2 FY19 as compared a meagre 0.7% in Q4 FY18. Large industry gained the most with almost 3% increase in exposure in the most recent quarter, as compared to 0.8% recorded in March 2018.

The manufacturing MSME segment on the other hand languished further as it experienced a negative growth of (-) 1.4% in September as compared to nearly 1% credit expansion recorded in March. Banks continued to be risk averse as much of credit increase occurred in working capital segment and not term loan segment.

Banks are no less to blame than the MSEs for their ills. Many MSE projects have been financed without consideration of the total costs of the project in most cases that came to our notice, that includes machinery installation costs, rates and taxes including GST, loading and unloading charges, transit insurance costs and other connected expenses.  Trial run for commercial production that should be part of pre-operative costs is also not included in the total project cost.  In addition, interest during the construction period is also debited to the working capital account opened simultaneously with the Term Loan account while such working capital account should be opened only from the date of commercial operations. Consequently, even by the time the unit starts commercial production, the unit becomes sick.

Moratorium should start from the date of release of last installment whereas most banks are starting from the date of first installment.  Sometimes, project implementation delays like delay in release of successive term loan instalments, receipt of imported machinery and its erection etc., would result in time overruns and cost overruns besides repayment starting well before commercial production.  This practice leads to inadequate financing of the enterprise and this is another contributory factor for sickness of the enterprise.

RBI’s Master Directions dated March 17, 2016 on Revival and Restructuring suggest that each Bank appoint Zonal Committee to consider revival. Corrective Action was to be initiated for Special Mention Accounts – SMA within certain time frame: SMA-0 to be provided corrective action. SMA-1 to go for restructuring and SMA-2 for recovery. Zonal Committees were not formed; even where formed, there is no record as to how many have been revived following the Directives.  Though RBI Empowered Committee meets every quarter no reliable data on the revival of manufacturing MSEs was available. RBI’s instructions on manufacturing micro and small enterprise revival seem glossy.

Yielding to the pressure of MSME Ministry, RBI on January 1, 2019, i.e., after a lapse of two years and over since the Master Directions, new directions for restructuring were issued. This circular clearly says that the standard assets SMA-0,1,2 need to be restructured and the exercise should be completed by March 2020 for loans up to Rs.25cr. There is an overdrive among banks now to restructure the SMA accounts. This is certainly a very efficient NPA-preventive tool if effectively implemented.

Neither the RBI nor the Banks consider ‘a known devil is better than an unknown angel’. Some unknown angels are fast turning into unknown devils as well.

The major issues in revival are: NPAs for revival require fresh margins from the beleaguered enterprise; provisioning continues at the same level even after revival; Banks do not have time to have dialogue with the entrepreneur when the unit develops symptoms of sickness; long drawn illness turns into a potential cancer turning the unit unviable. Weeding out willful defaulters is possible even in the first quarter of default during which time banks invariably tolerate.

It is intriguing that the units closed for six months due to failure to pay up electricity dues remain active in banks’ books of accounts. Good number of them has the potential to revive unless they willfully defaulted. During the first 3months of such non-payment of electricity dues proper diagnostics would help the revival.
1.         All NPA-MSMEs in manufacturing sector up to Rs.1cr due for consideration for revival even though the banker may take a different view, should be referred to an external accredited institution (EAI):
a.         Such accreditation could be given for an independent organization like the Industrial Health Clinic wherever set up or to a Committee set up by the State Government involving bank representatives that should include MSME-DI. The Committee should also hear the entrepreneur.
2.         Above Rs.1cr but up to Rs.25cr, such consideration for revival shall be referred to a Committee of the Bank at the appropriate level that should include ‘MSME Expert’, MSME-DI representative, and a State Government representative in order that interests of sovereign dues is taken due notice of and equitable attention is devoted for their recovery as part of revival package.  The committee before taking any decision should hear the view point of the entrepreneur, Revival Policy of the state government and record the same in the minutes for considering or otherwise duly giving valid reasons thereof.
4.         All such revival package shall consider the following financial facilitation:
a.         Freezing the status of the classification of asset on the date of reference to the external institution or the Committee of the Bank for one year or till the date of rejection.
b.         Reversal of penal interest and other penal charges;
c.         Charging simple interest at MCLR from the date of reference for one year;
d.         Fees/Charges levied by the EAI including IHCs should be borne by the GoI through a special fund set up for the purpose;
e.         Bank should share ‘pari pasu’ charge on the borrower’s assets for any external funding towards borrower’s margin including such funding by the IHCs;
f.          Additional funding where required, should be charged at MCLR by the involved agencies.

Such guidelines should be applicable to all the Banks, NBFCs, SIDBI and SFCs. ‘Behind every small enterprise, there is a story worth knowing.’


Saturday, February 2, 2019

Aspirational Budget 2019


Union Budget 2019 – Exceeded Expectations

Amidst the honco of high growth and reducing retail inflation this pre-Election Budget largely fulfilled the expectations of farmers, middle class, real estate. Disposable income in the hands of salary earners and the middle class would jump due to the increase in IT exemption limit to Rs.5.lakhs, up to Rs.50000 standard deduction and non-taxable income from bank and post office deposits up to Rs.40000 and this would surely spur the domestic savings stagnated at around 30% till now and also stimulates the demand.

Farmers certainly have something to cheer. All farmers having less than 5acres would get monthly income of Rs.6000 under direct benefit scheme. There were 12.76cr operational holdings under the command of farmers owning below 5 acres according to Agriculture Census. At the allocation of Rs.75000cr against this item of budget at Rs.6000 it can reach only 12.5cr if there was no further subdivision and fragmentation. But such a measure alone is a big bonanza for farmers. Integrated look at agriculture sector – animal husbandry and fisheries also got a big boost. One can’t expect more from interim budget. Tenant farmers are just ignored although 80% of suicides occurred in this group that has a share of 14% of land under cultivation according to the NSSO data.

Micro and small enterprises having loans up to Rs.1cr would get interest subvention of 2% for the first time. We should hope that this benefit would reach the intended and the banks would not take advantage of this concession.

NDA did well in the cleanliness drive; but performed poorly in providing safe drinking water. While the NDA spent 77% of allocation on this score, still its reach to the poor is far too distant. If the reach improves, expenditure on health may decline. Coupled with this, environmental clean up providing for fresh air should have been provided at least 2% of the Budget in line with the Climate commitments to the UN.

In this backdrop well calculated Fiscal Deficit would cross even the 3.4% of GDP. CAD at 2.3% is on sensitive border. If the oil prices go northwards, then this will upset the apple cart of growth and lead to higher inflation than the one taken forgranted at little above 2%. It will cross 5.5% during the next six months. Even RBI inflation expectation at 4% will have a zolt. 

Mention was made about Banks and NPAs. While the reforms like the IBC code accelerated the recovery process from the corporate loans much more clean up is required in the stables of banks, looking at the staggering frauds of Rs.41,500cr and the recent sacking of ICICI Bank CEO. Lot more is needed in improving governance over which the FM had no word.

Education is in a big mess and Employment is in doldrums. It is strategy rather than spending that requires attention in both the cases and real time monitoring is the need of the hour. This did not get any attention. Draft Employment Report of NSS unfolded a big rise in unemployment. When 55% of the population is below the age of 25 years, strategies for employment and enterprise promotion, and education are clear areas of neglect in the budget.

Budget understandably is at best an estimate. Although NDA has displayed better spending of the allocations, outcomes need regular monitoring and this should be done within the public glare.


Union Budget 2019


Union Budget 2019 – Reasonable Expectations

Amidst the honco of high growth and reducing retail inflation this pre-Election Budget has some just expectations. Tax-GDP ratio of 17.5% can be pitched up to 20% given the fact that the rich have been growing. Domestic savings at around 30% has to improve and investments have to be less volatile for which the foundation has been well laid by considerable acclaim in EODB.

Demand stimulation and medium term employment have to improve significantly. Farmers certainly have high hopes notwithstanding the limitations of union government in this regard as Agriculture is a concurrent subject. It is wise to give up the announcement of crop loan targets as it is not related to the Budget per se. States like Telangana and MP have done well in Income support schemes and Center would do well to support such initiatives in some appropriate proportion.

Assurance of Basic Income may have to wait for the 15th Finance Commission’s recommendations. One announcement can be setting up a fund for Price compensation for farmers whenever the MSP and market prices have wide divergence at the point of farmer reach.

All the tenant farmers and small and marginal farmers above 65years could be provided pension of Rs.5000 per annum as their ability to work and earn their annual incomes is eroded completely by then. This can be done through a pooled fund out of the 2% of income earned on commodity exchanges and 1% of agricultural insurance premium.

NDA did well in the cleanliness drive; but performed poorly in providing safe drinking water. While the NDA spent 77% of allocation on this score, still its reach to the poor is far too distant. If the reach improves, expenditure on health may decline. Coupled with this, environmental clean up providing for fresh air should be provided at least 2% of the Budget.

Education is in a big mess and Employment is in doldrums. It is strategy rather than spending that requires attention in both the cases and real time monitoring is the need of the hour.

Banking: Restructure NABARD by hiving off RIDF portfolio; RRB and Cooperatives and Rural Development through Watershed, SHGs, FPOs and finance to tenant farmers and agriculture marketing as 3 separate subsidiaries. Similarly, SIDBI needs restructuring to provide assured lending to micro and small manufacturing enterprises and revival of incipient sick and sick MSMEs by way of external support mechanisms. Union Government would do well to announce any compelling credit products only through a committee of select bankers.

Budget understandably is a best estimate. But outcomes are important and they need effective monitoring.