Is Rate Cut Desirable?
Monetary and Fiscal Policies are the two engines of
growth. While the fiscal policy is annual and out with the Union Budget,
Monetary policy is more dynamic and adaptive to the economic environment and
conditioned by the inflation target. It matters little either for the FM or the
RBI Governor whether tomatoes are sold at Rs.80/kg or potatoes Rs.12/kg.
Inflation target of 4% still appears to leave headroom for the RBI to go in for
further rate cut – a policy of continuity.
US Federal Bank opted for rate reduction signaling the
need for buttressing the US economy in the wake of another impending recession,
much to the chagrin and disappointment of Europe and UK. Will India have to
follow suit or should it go on its own? What is desirable?
Exports are on the decline. Complacence in forex
reserves at the present level at around
$450bn would appear misplaced viewed against the China’s reserves even
against their declining growth rate and current trade war with the US. With the
UK on Brexit mode for certain going by the promise of present Prime Minister by
October 2019 would further alter the trade balances globally. The present trade
balance looks only a temporary comfort.
Our careful management of exports and continuous
search for new markets for Indian goods call for an aggressive manufacturing
policy and prevention of asset deterioration in the corporate and MSME sectors.
Export of culture related products and traditional artisan products would hold
good prospect and this can happen in dynamic credit markets at affordable rates
of interest and not so much the subsidies.
View this in the backdrop of major central banks’
similar exercises this season: whether US or Canada and Basel warnings.
Financial columnists like Ian Mcguan warn the Federal Bank against further rate
cut. Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist at RBC Global Asset Management says: “the
longer that people go in an environment of lower rates, the more accustomed
they get to them – and the more difficult it is to raise borrowing costs.” This
should explain the reason for the Indian banks going slow on rate cut
transmission to the borrowers.
Further, their net interest incomes of banks have been
looking south for the last five years. On top, their off-balance sheet
exposures are more than the balance sheet trending to a danger that the world
economy saw in 2007 and 2008.
Stock markets largely influenced by global trends and
the announcements in the Union Budget over the FPI are tottering. Bond yields
are also not so attractive unless they are of longer duration than 10years. Increase
in minimum public shareholding could trigger a sale of shares – but not when
the market is poised for decline. Company valuations are causing a serious
concern at the moment.
Major Banks including SBI transmitted Central Bank rate
cut on deposits. Domestic Savings already on decline could slide down further. Depositors
and investors looking for safe returns year after year are a disappointed lot,
for they are at their near-zero return of the money held.
Consumer index and business confidence index for June
2019 are on the disappointing numbers. Indian economy is not on a borrowing
spree during the last five years. Instances like Amrapali, Hiranandini, DHL,
have enough caution on hold for lending aggressively for real estate. Real
Estate and housing finance, if pushed beyond limits, would put the lending
institutions in a more beleaguered position than now. Priority sector lending
is any way on low yields.
IMF downgrade of global growth rate to 3.2% in 2019-20
is a pointer to bolstering growth through debt route with interest rate cuts by
the central banks. It should however be kept in mind that Central Banks and
Governments have actively encouraged debt-driven consumption and investment in
order to prop up growth. Such policies alter the dynamics of credit markets.
Climate risks are accentuating credit risks. Indian
banks are yet to poise themselves to cushion against such risks. When global
banks take the climate risks seriously and Indian banks delay, the impact on
Indian credit markets is going to be high risk driven.
Budget lines amply indicate the necessity of more
private investments to flow to key infrastructure sectors like roads, railways,
airways, ports and such investments need to come from more debt than savings
and investments in the emerging low rate scenario. With the uniform corporate
tax rate at 25% government expects that there will be more corporate
participation. But the emerging context does not elude much confidence among
several well meaning economists.
If growth is a concern and if it should look only to
credit markets then, infrastructure for lending needs to improve and this calls
for re-positioning and reforming banks and setting up Development Banks where
long term funds will be spent for long term purposes. Structural reforms should
follow any impending rate cuts.
August first week is with expectation of a further
rate cut to bolster the staring decline in growth. Is growth contingent upon
debt or investment? This is a question that should deserve serious
consideration in the context of risk-starved banks yet to recover from the
self-built shocks of the NPA-overhang.
Published in Telangana Today, 5th August
2019
