2021 and Beyond

 

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...” This is how Charles Dickens begins his novel, A Tale of Two Cities.

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Vision and Strategies Change

 This is an apt description of this age. We are at a maddening speed in technologies. Industry 4.0 has entered. Artificial intelligence, block chain technologies, man machine learning, robotics are the decisive forces of change in most organisations. Digital applications are replacing the traditional gurus (teachers). Tick boxes define the success of persons, whether in schools or office selections. People would like to travel, if possible, at the speed of light. Several corporates are rewriting their vision and strategy documents.   

 Conflicting Contours

 If those characteristics define the age of wisdom, street fights, large family divorces, abandoned children in larger numbers than before, failures in inter-country relationships redefining trade rules, ignoring climate warnings, several persons yearning to cross the boundaries aiming high only to know that ‘distant hills look green’, reflect the age of foolishness. 

 Mobocracy Vs Democracy

 With Joe Biden taking over the reins of the largest democracy, democracy would appear to be on the path of restoration. But, on the other hand, in India, with the unrelenting farmers’ agitation, mobocracy seem to be asserting itself, mainly because of the failure in following the Constitutional process for a well-thought-out reform in the sector. With 123 amendments, Indian Constitution seems to be under attack off and on and begs for a comprehensive overhaul, so as to keep the Fundamental Rights enshrined there intact.

 Financial Sector 

 In the financial sector, Covid-19 shook the world while in India, the scenario is much worse as frauds and cybercrimes are surging, threatening financial stability. Reforms in this sector should move strategies ahead of structures. Two World Bank economists in a recent blog commenting on asset purchases in emerging markets and developing economies, say that unconventional policies and unconventional times had set in. “History is a reminder to central bank’s credibility if asset purchase programs are used for prolonged monetary financing of fiscal deficits.”

 Investments in water, environment, natural resources, education, health and hygiene, and emerging technologies would be the defining features of sustainability.

 Ethics in Governance and Yoga

 Ethics in governance and transformation processes seem to be of criticality. Albert Einstein had said, “We should be men of values rather than men of success, ” Winston Churchill had said “We should extend values beyond our homes.” The corporate executives are selling their professional skills and not their conscience. It is the attitude to life and the value system one has to cherish and live with. Values are not like a sensex graph varying every day or with every person. Values are universal in character. It is the application of values that has been undergoing a change. Clean minds are as important as clean physics and dharmic yoga makes more sense than mere physical yoga embraced by people in different parts of the world, with PM Modi’s clarion call to the nation since 2014. 

 Post Covid, the stars surface

 During this third millennium, with sputnik science reaching for livable space even on Jupiter and the moon, India would be moving ahead of other nations and prove its leadership in space technologies. She has already proved herself as a leader in pharmaceuticals and software and would move its best foot forward in the transformational world. No wonder McKinsey in its most recent article has put Asia as the leader of the future and generations will define the future in terms of pre-Covid and post Covid. 

 The year 2021 and beyond will see the world transiting to a different horizon. The wisdom of the aged will fall behind the expectations of youth and it is this youth that are going to redefine the age ahead. I am not a soothsayer but the writings on the wall are clear.

 (The writer, an economist and risk management specialist, is author of “Roots to Fruits – The Journey of A Development Banker.” The views are personal.) 

   https://www.moneylife.in/article/2021-and-beyond/62745.html

 

 

 

Democracy is in peril - Save Democracies

 Indian Express today carried a banner story with the title: "When history is rewritten, US Courts many be singled out for protecting national elections. Capitol Hill was put to flames and the whole of US should have been in rage. But there are a section of Republicans insisting on the reversal of election process with Trump hegemony to continue. 

There are an estimated 33mn expatriots and several Indians among them serving in the most reputed IT firms either with \US base or with India base. Their voice should also be heard. 

India stands out with the Supreme Court readying to deliver its judgment today on the Farmers' agitation against the three Farm Laws. Most protestors are from the three States of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh in the lead and some vested interests joining them. While it is true that the Acts have come into being without the expressed consent of the State Governments ruled by non-NDA States, there are a few silent supporters to these farm laws. 

Politics of India are dominated by the elitist farmers who were able to exploit the small and marginal farmers and vested interests ruling the Agricultural Market Yards in the States. They now throw the blame on these Acts as capitalistic and in support of capitalists and contract farmers. 

Contract farming is in vogue for the past two decades in one form or other. Organized Retail markets only enhanced their presence but to the absolute advantage of both the farmers, Collective farm organizations, and the customers of farm products. Today will be the historic day when the highest Court would decide their fate.

This apart, there are many a legislation like the one relating to universal identification through Aadhar Card identification that would also see the judgment today.

 "Public Perceptions: Public perceptions play an important role in policy formulation and implementation. In a 2014 report by Oxfam International titled Working for the Few polling from across the world captures the belief of many that laws and regulations are now de-signed to benefit the rich. A survey in six countries (Spain, Brazil, India, South Africa, the UK, and the US) showed that a majority of the people believe that laws are skewed in favor of the rich. Public expectations and perceptions, therefore, need to be considered seriously in public policy management in a democratic set-up.

 

Free Speech: This has been one of the key tests of democracy. After the social media platforms started giving expression to the free speech, governments in different parts of the world, without India as exception, started controlling it. Interestingly the Economist in its issue dated October 24, 2020 reported: “Our cover this week is about the rules of free speech in the era of social media. As online outrage mounts, pressure is growing to restrict ever more material. The big tech firms’ shifting attempts to clean up their platforms mean that a handful of unelected executives are determining the boundaries of what people can say: Is that good for society?" (Excerpt from my Autobiography: "Roots to Fruits, Part 2 Chapter 3, Development, Democracy, and Development with Human Development Focus").

Both Public perception and Free Speech are crucial elements of Constitutional Democracies. This does not imply that outrage and destruction are part of such expressions leading to tremendous waste of public resources at the will of the people. It is time that people who are against such outrage should have a free voice against them.

 

Balanced Growth is Essential for Democracy

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/balanced-growth-is-essential-for-democracy/article30705183.ece

The fabric of democracy depends on the social and economic consequences of the amendments to the Constitution at a critical time in India’s economic history. Agitations have caused loss of lot of man-days and diversion of productive time.  Timing of change is important for the success of change. This article does not intend to discuss the merits or otherwise of the latest amendments to the Constitution – either Article 370 annulment or CAA. The focus will be on the consequences of the economics of democracy and not so much the politics.

In democracy, it is the voice of the people expressed through the electoral vote. We have seen that the vote bank rarely touched even 30 percent of eligible population. People who caste their votes have mostly been the less endowed and widely spread across all religions and castes and this has little prospect of change.

One of the world's largest democracies had to wait for its day to overtake china's growth rate as consensus doesn't come about without discussion and lot of deliberation. Centralised planning of the Maholnobis-Nehruvian model though conceived well to usher in socialistic pattern of society let off the principles of federalism to come up with an experiment with Niti Aayog whose results are yet to be on the dashboard of India. Development is more than growth.

Ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity apart multiple languages form the Indian Union. This diversity is both its strength and weakness. States formed on linguistic basis with some of them larger than several countries had uneven natural endowments, and imbalances in the dispensation of resources at the hands of central government.

Notwithstanding the average nominal growth of 8% between 2007-12, human development indices ranked India at 129. 12.1cr (2011) population is covered by 24.95cr households with average habitat population of slightly less than 5 per household. Poverty levels have gone down in rural areas from 50% in 1993-94 to 23% in 2016-17 and in urban areas correspondingly from approximately 32% to around 13%. Rural roads constitute 70.2% of the total length of roads across the country. Quite a few States have made CC roads instead of metal roads. As per 71^st round of NSS, Literacy levels too have gone up significantly to 69.1% by 2014.

Goldman Sachs' estimated an average of 8% per annum during 2016-20 notwithstanding the prevailing global turbulence. So did all the leading predictions from KPMG and McKinsey. Although the NDA government announced the goals of good governance and cooperative federalism, both remain still at the goalposts.

Unless States are taken on board in this second largest democracy of the world, prospects of sustained growth remain elusive. As at the end of March 2018, eleven of the twenty-nine States (now 31 and 7 Union territories) showed consistently high growth during the period 2014-18. If the nation were to attain the lofty goal of $5trn by 2024-25, the rest of 20 should also join the minimum 8% growth level. Bihar (14.50%), Chattisgarh (11.20%); Goa (14%), Karnataka (12.00); Madhya Pradesh (around 18%); Maharashtra (10.6%); Tamil Nadu (12.30%); Telangana (14.10%); Uttarakhand (11.20); West Bengal (16.10%) and a few North Eastern States like Assam, Meghalaya also lead the list. 

Government of India would do well to lend all support to these leading States and push the other lagging States through sustainable interventions in infrastructure, communications, transport and tourism without giving scope for them to feel a partisan approach. All the Global Investment opportunities should have equitable spread.

Vice President in a recent Address mentioned that 479 Parliamentarians are crorepatis. The State Legislatures also are crowded with such crorepatis. Latest Oxfam Report (Jan 20, 2020) laments “Economic inequality is out of control. In 2019, the world’s billionaires, only 2,153 people, had more wealth than 4.6 billion people.” The Report attributes this to gender inequality and unpaid Care work at home by women. The richest 1% have more than twice the wealth of the 6.9bn people.

One good suggestion for the Finance Minister at the right time: taxing 0.5% of the richer 1% for the next 10years would be equal to investment needed for 117mn jobs in education, health and elderly care. Good governance demands that these rich sections shall not receive subsidies of the order currently prevailing.

Availability of health services, supply of drinking water remains inadequate and costly. Availability of liquor, however, has enhanced adding significantly to the State revenues. Both are causes of concern for the future of a healthy democracy.

The World Bank projected that India, along with Brazil, China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia, will account for more than half of the global growth by 2025 with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 per cent between 2011 and 2025. While this prediction is likely to undergo change in the context of current slowdown not just in India but in all the major economies in the world, there is no chance for India to alter its growth vision.

Addressing the resource constraints (mainly water, energy, infrastructure and investing more in human development (mainly public health and education) is important to realize India’s growth potential. Consensual approach is the essence of a successful democracy. India does not have the luxury of being otherwise.

(All the latest data is sourced from the Report of the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, Government of India, 2018: www.mospi.gov.in )