Inflation - the hydra

 

Inflation – the hydra

B. Yerram Raju

Times of India Blogpost dated 29.04.2022.

Sweltering heat makes us look to June’s first monsoon showers as much as the monetary policy of the RBI looking at taming the inflation as its uppermost task. When Bloomberg mentions that the world is experiencing a synchronised inflation outbreak that previously seemed related to the US and Europe, and that producer prices are rising in Japan, South Korea, India, and all economies are feeling the heat of fuel and food prices, it has to be viewed seriously.

I tried to look at it from what is happening in the working class both in urban and rural areas in our country. Several state governments are indulging in competitive populism, notwithstanding the ever-rising fuel prices.

My house cleaner has a couple of acres of land in Mahbubnagar district of Telangana. She gets her minimum wages when she abstains from the work in our house, at least four days a month and seven days at least once in a quarter. Her logic: Every office has one Sunday and two second Saturdays as holidays. Why should I not get the same? She works as house cleaner for ten houses with an average income of Rs.2000 per month per household. She gets free ration; free medical treatment in the government hospital if she or her family members have illness or accident. Her husband is a fruit-seller on bicycle. His net income is Rs.15000 a month and recently he got a loan of Rs.10000 under the street vendors’ scheme that helped him buy a cooler to the house. She has put both her sons in a social welfare residential school. She is also not bothered about income tax though her family income exceeds the taxable income. She has Aadhar card and felt needless to have PAN card! She is least bothered about inflation.

In a chat with her, I and my wife realized that most house cleaners are in the same boat as her and they only have to pay rent. Some of them are also expecting to move to their own two-bedroom flat promised by the government. I went to a village on the way to a temple in Sangareddy district. That was a shandy day. Hence most villagers are in shandy either as buyers or sellers. I got down from the car, a little uncared for the anger of my wife. She knows that when I get down on such errand, I would take at least thirty to forty-five minutes to be back.

I enquired from around twenty persons regarding the price-rise. They mentioned only two things: one, Fuel price and two, Oil price. No others mattered to them. At least one person in every house has a motorcycle. Every family has a piece of land either owned or leased. They are bothered about the wages for the farm labour. They sky-rocketed. They are planning to go for farm machinery either in groups or go for hiring it to reduce farming costs. They are bothered more about increasing unrest in villages due to family feuds.

Inflation therefore has not figured much in the conversation. Rise in wages is an issue but related to inflation. Not that the rising inflation indices – consumer price indices crossing the RBI headline boundaries – is not a worry. The fact is that there are several factors that do not get into inflation accounting. The rents in urban areas are on the rise despite a boom in real estate and housing and cheap housing loans.

If interest rates rise, the cause will not be so much the inflation as the non-performing loans in the retail sector, protracted corporate loan recoveries after severe haircuts, under the most permissive route of Indian Bankruptcy Code proceedings.

Union government has a responsibility to look at the fuel prices beyond the revenues that are earned out of them. Most of the states have genuine concerns over the cess and it is time to be transparent and remove all the cess as the purpose for which cess is levied and spent are never coordinated. For example, look at the similar rise in fuel prices globally in 2014 and 2015 and the domestic prices. Can we get back to the comparable barrel prices and retail prices of fuel and gas?

Once the interest rates rise, the scope for real interest rates to pare up and comfort the savers exists and the hapless senior citizens will have a sigh of relief. Real interest rates are currently negative and hopefully the June monetary policy of the RBI will bend the hydra.

*Author is an economist and risk management specialist and the views are his own.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/fincorp/inflation-the-hydra/

 

 

 Cumbersome Guarantees and Insurances for MSEs Need Redress

This Blog was published in the Times of India ( see the link below)

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are extolled as the engines of employment, growth, and key to the supply chain management of medium and large corporate enterprises, leading exporters, manufacture over 6000 products. They have been redefined during the first Covid-19 disruptions to the economy in terms of investment and turnover, replacing the earlier definition restricted to investment in plants and machinery. This sector is next to agriculture which employs the largest number of persons. 98% of enterprises are micro, mostly owned by proprietors or partners. Even partnerships are to a large extent family partners.

Access to credit for the sector is the Achilles Heel. To provide easy and better access the GoI and SIDBI have set up Credit Guarantee Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises in 2000 (CGTMSE). Even during the pandemic, GoI introduced Emergency Credit Linked Guarantee Scheme under Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan with CGTMSE holding the baby.

But did the sector gain much from the insurances and guarantees in their existing shape? This needs a probe.

Insurance:

When the small-scale industries of Yester decades used to take out insurance cover for the plant and machinery against fire, riot, and risks, through the liability jointly owned by both the credit institution and the borrowing enterprise. After universal banking was ushered in, several banks took to Bank Assurance. A transparent joint insurance policy gave place to a policy that just lists the names of the borrowing MSME firms with the amount insured. The firms are ignorant of their liability under such policy and its renewal terms annually.

There is no evidence of any insurance claim of such bank insurance of enterprise machinery as a primary asset response. On the other hand, as several MSMEs noted that banks have over-booked insurance premium amount upfront with every loan sanction – whether term loan or working capital. Never did such insurance pay off for the MSE in trouble.

Both the MSMEs and the Banks have debated their mutual deficiencies in several media discussions, and they are plagued by mutual distrust.

While the redefinition helped many scale up their enterprises and move to exports quickly, there were lakhs that shut their doors during the pandemic. The impact of redefining has been such that a negative 1.8% MSE outstanding loan in FY20 has moved to 4.8% year-on-year by the third quarter as the existing.

Guarantees:

The 'strength' of a guarantee that allows credit to the enterprises without collateral or third party, is context-dependent: it depends on its nature, the legal environments that are relevant, current practices, and the context when the lender exercises his right. Yet, for twenty years, institutional credit to the sector leaves a gaping hole of Rs.279 trillion according to the International Financial Corporation (2015) study.

RBI mandated Banks to extend credit to micro-enterprises under CGTMSE up to Rs.10lakhs per enterprise. While the CGTMSE can extend guarantees to MSEs up to Rs.2crore, the covers range from 75 to 85 percent of the loans. During the last three years (2018-21), even retail loans and the service sector are being covered with guarantees while the extent of such guarantees is limited to 50% of retail loans. One hundred Member-Lending institutions (MLIs) that include 23 NBFCs are availing of the facility and yet several of them express serious reservations over such ailment.

Annual Report of CGTMSE for Fy2021 reveals that 47 percent of guarantees pertained to loan amounts of less than Rs.10lakhs (mandated by the RBI to extend without any collateral); 18% are in the range of loan amount of Rs.10lakhs-25lakhs; 14% are in the range of Rs.25lakhs-50lakhs; 12% are in the range of Rs.50lakhs-100lakhs, and 9% are in the range of Rs.100lakhs-200lakhs. Rs.45,851crore have been provided guarantee cover during the year 2020-21.

MLI concerns:

The guarantee portfolio increased after the retail, hybrid-collateral, and NBFCs joined, as these three constituted 49% of the guarantees extended during FY 21. It is the 1.18crore of the 6.3crore MSMEs that need a guarantee more than the rest. MLIs opine that the guarantee premium of 1-1.25 percent involved a lot of paperwork, follow-up for receiving the claim amount that too, after declaring the asset as NPA.

Banks have to prove that they have taken all the measures that include issuing legal notices, follow-up on recovery, provisioning for the loans, and proceeding against the borrowers under SARFAESI Act where the assets are partially guaranteed. These factors lead to a lack of trust by the CGTMSE both the MSEs and Banks.

The Way Forward

MSEs in manufacturing that forms an important component of sustainable supply chain management of Industry 4.0 need different forms of credit acceleration and insurance mechanism.

While the Banks should evaluate the credit risks of such enterprises on transparent parameters and extend credit to MSEs along with counseling, mentoring, and follow-up, the enterprises should digitize their operations and derive benefits from a large number of schemes recently floated by the Ministry of MSME, GoI.

Since fourteen states take 88 percent of MSE outstanding credit, and these MSEs reported less NPAs than their elder brothers in the corporate sector, each enterprise can be insured for various risks that include, fire, riot risks, natural calamities, the pandemic-like situations, plant and machinery, storage, other supply-chain disruptions, and cash flows on a graded scale. Once the enterprise pays the premium based on the risk it chooses to cover, and such risks are well-measured, insurance will ensure that the enterprise will be a going concern, and banks can extend the needed help duly assessing their risk cover as well. It is time for a change the guarantee is looked at and replaced it with Insurance, for which purpose, the GoI may appoint a High-powered Committee.

The policy should be transparent and discussed with the stakeholders in at least ten of the fourteen MSME-dominant states before introduction.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/fincorp/cumbersome-guarantees-and-insurances-for-mses-need-redress/

 

 

Future Agenda for Cooperatives

FUTURE CO-OPERATIVE AGENDA

B. Yerram Raju*

 

The Home Minister and Union Minister for Cooperation, Amit Shah held a meeting of state ministers to reformulate and revise the National Co-operative Policy, 2022 in the aftermath of the resistance of the states to the  97^th Constitutional Amendment 2012 and the consequential changed milieu in the Co-operative movement of the Country.

 

The widely spread Co-operatives from brooms to looms; from fertilizer to food; from production to consumption; from milk to silk and from labour to power have their roots lie in the setting up of Primary Agricultural Co-operative Credit Societies (PACS) in 1904. Entire cooperative legislation has been catering more to the credit cooperative structure al bait several imbalances and irregularities and faulty accounting practices. Urban Cooperative Banks (UCBs), like the community banks in the US, has been serving the limited requirements of the interested cooperators and have become symbols of mismanagement and poor governance, requiring continual intervention and regulatory architecture from the RBI to protect the interests of the depositors who invested in those banks.

‘Cooperatives are operatives in misappropriation’, bemoaned some famous cooperators like L.C. Jain and eminent bankers like Burra Venkatappapaiah, in the yesteryears. After the Third Five-Year Plan, the Five-Year Plan (FYP) documents removed the chapter on Cooperation. After NABARD assumed charge of supervision of the rural cooperative credit structure, their size and contribution to agriculture and rural development significantly declined giving more space to the less-interested commercial banks. There has been a strategy retreat from ‘Farmers’ Service Societies’ (multi-purpose cooperatives) financed earlier by the commercial banks

Context, Rationale, and the problems

The lofty ideal of Gram Swaraj embedded in Panchayats and Cooperatives came to occupy secondary status despite the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution of India, mired in confusing objectives and corrupt practices. Cooperatives originally started with the laudable socio-economic goal of helping the unreached and as effective instruments of financial inclusion, are today under the seizure of the political elite and became in fact the seedbeds of political power. The elected representatives like the Presidents, Vice Presidents, and Board of Directors appointed secretaries would do the things they want and not what the members legitimately expected of them.

Cooperative Federalism demands that the states have to be taken on board over any new policy changes as the subject of cooperation falls in the domain of the states and not the union government.

Martin Luther King Jr, once stated, “Almost always, it is the creative dedicated minority that has made the world better.” The largest food brand in India – AMUL proved that cooperatives are the best bet for survival. “If you want to be incrementally better, be competitive. If you want to be exponentially better, be cooperative,” a Canadian Lesson Book on Cooperatives quoted.

Recommendation:

            The Government should reformulate its Future Co-operative Agenda to professionalize and democratize the Co-operatives and also to facilitate the development of the Co-operatives as Self-reliant and economically sustainable organizations in order to provide an environment for the members to have improved access, economies of scale, insuring them against unforeseen risks, safeguarding them against market imperfections and bestowing the advantages of Co-operative Collective Action, based on International Co-operative Principles.

Policy on Future Co-operative Agenda:

 

Definition of cooperatives should avoid their classification that gives a long arm to the regulator.

 

* While upholding the values and principles of Cooperation, the Policy recognizes the Cooperatives as an autonomous association of persons, united voluntarily to meet their common economic, social, and cultural needs and aspirations through a jointly-owned and democratically-controlled enterprise.

 

This Policy addresses the hitherto unaddressed or neglected issues of management, governance, audit, and member-run democratic structure of the cooperatives in the country through legal, accounting, technological and structural changes and therefore would prove its supremacy over other economic instruments in the interest of inclusive growth, a goal not to be missed by any democratic government.

 

Registrar of Cooperatives – role shall not be so much of intervention as registration, maintaining membership data and arbitration over the issues that arise among the co-operators and cooperatives.

 

Key Risk Areas:

1. The political will to implement such policy throughout the length and breadth of the country.
2. Speed of action
3. Resources for implementing change – Budgetary provisions; Endorsement of Niti Aayog – the think tank of the present government and
4. Approvals from RBI and SEBI, where required.

 

Strategies To Achieve The Objectives:

          Technology offers a level playing field and therefore, there must be a plan for technology infusion. Co-operatives being financially weak enterprises owing to their excessive obligations enjoined upon by the state governments, funds for technology management should come from the State Government as a one-time grant/support with conformance to certain discipline by the leadership in Co-operatives from the primary to the apex levels in all the spheres.

          The Investment in technology can come as a grant or soft loan assistance from either the government or an international organization. Co-operatives that have adequate collaterals to offer can be enabled to do so with the approval of their respective General Body. The tenor of assistance can be mutually agreed upon between the giver and taker.

Monitoring and Implementation

There shall be a Policy Review Committee, meeting at half-yearly intervals, at the State and Union Government levels with the concerned Secretary-in-charge to chair the deliberations at quarterly intervals. The concerned Minister shall present to the Parliament’s first session of the year, a review of the efficacy of the delivery instruments under the Cooperative Act.

 

Conclusion

The vision for the twenty-first century should withstand the challenges of a competitive business environment where excellence, efficiency, and high productivity parameters will be the priority. Emphasis will continue to be laid on an improvement with co-operative governance through the process of restructuring and rejuvenation.