Bright Future for Indian Agriculture But Reforms Imminent

 

Future is bright for Indian Agriculture – But Reforms Imminent.

B. Yerram Raju*

Agriculture is one sector that takes all the four factors of production – land, labour, capital, and organisation/management - in full measure, and consumes the scarcest resource water additionally. Several limitations surround the future of agriculture. Land is limited and there are several claims from dwellers to industrialists. So is water and capital. Management depends on the absorption of the latest technologies.

India has only 4 percent of world’s wate resources. Its present population of around 1.39bn is likely to escalate to 1.69bn according to population experts. Improving (a) water resources’ optimization, (b) productivity of the small holdings that constitute 50 percent of the arable land, (c) technologies unique to the production systems of India, (d) integrating all types of agricultural activities and (e) resilience to climate change, is imperative.

India’s agricultural growth (1950-2020) can be seen in many areas: the second largest horticultural production in the world; the highest milk production in the world, witnessing twelve-fold growth; the second largest fish production in the world. It is now a net exporter and its agricultural production is 44 percent higher than that of the US. According to Praveen Rao, Vice Chancellor, PJTS Agricultural University, Hyderabad, India’s agricultural GDP rose from US$ 15bn in 1960 to US$101bn in 2000. During the next sixteen years, the growth was 350 percent more than that registered during the preceding thirty years.    

A.K. Singh, Director, Indian Agricultural Research Institute of ICAR, in his most recent J. Raghotham Reddy memorial lecture at Hyderabad, highlighted that despite 32.7 percent increase in the area during 1951-2021, the production increased by almost six times, and productivity increased by 4.5 times during the same period, maintaining the food security. The period did not saw pestilence and famines in the country. Market-assisted Selection (MAS) is now an integral part of the cultivar development programmes at the ICAR institutions and several agricultural universities, developing 74 crop cultivars in seven different crops -rice, wheat, pearl millet, chickpea, soybean, groundnut, and maize. This still leaves the challenge of India producing 333mt of food grains to feed its projected 1.64bn population by 2050.

As per the NSSO (2014), about 232 million persons are employed still in agriculture (49 per cent of the workforce), contributing about 17 per cent of the GDP. The number seems to have come down to about 219 million in 2015, which is still a very significant number (Kapoor, 2017). A NITI Aayog study estimated the agricultural labour productivity is one-third of the non-agricultural sectors. There is severe shortage of farm labour either to cut the sugarcane crop or cotton picking – the two largest labour-absorbing crops.

Telangana State is the first state to commence growing single-pick cotton from this year, thanks to the intense research by the PJTSAU under the specific directive of the farmer-Chief Minister, K. Chandrasekhar Rao. Farmers are eagerly looking for assured yields of this variety to save the labour costs.

Farming has been the focus and not the farmer of all the research that no doubt yielded excellent results. Doubling of farmers’ income by 2025 is still a dream, because reforms in agriculture sector were just ignored for the last three decades. Small farmer and tenant farmers realised that they have to turn as entrepreneurs for sustainable growth. Several start-ups in farm field have lately come up. Still, aggregators at the farm gate, marketing reforms and easy access to credit beg attention of the policy maker, more so, when we look at the technological innovations that A. K. Singh spoke off:  1. Molecular breeding, 2. Crop biofortification, 3. Microbial technologies, 4. Climate change and mitigation strategies, 5. Satellite remote-sensing technology, 6. Precision agriculture, and 7. Improving irrigation efficiency.

In addition to speed breeding, genome breeding, and use of remote sensing techniques, drone technology for smart agriculture is making deep inroads. A. Drone Sensing for mapping and discrimination of crops, monitoring crop stress – biotic and abiotic, yield damage assessment, soil fertility, and for agri-input applications are some of the drone-based technologies.

While it is true that a century beyond will see the disruptive technologies shaping agriculture growth, the way forward would be in investing in human resources and infrastructure for disruptive innovations (at least 1.4 percent of GDP in agriculture), like Internet of technologies (IoT), AI, ML, Block Chain leading climate, smart, regenerative and remunerative agriculture, adoption of management practices integrating small farm holdings, and mainstreaming the biofortified crops and nutrition literacy.

Investment should come either from the farmer’s equity or his ability to raise the debt. Debt markets in India are deeply suspicious of the farmer and small entrepreneur. Therefore, there is need for a cultural shift in lending to the farm sector. Second, all the above technologies still carry the risk of adverse weather and climate. They are also subject to the cyclones, tsunamis, floods, and holocausts. While crop related technologies are of short term nature, rest are all medium to long term capital investments. Agri-entrepreneurs should look to investments from angel funds, patient capital investors and social capital entrepreneurs. Green House Gas reduction from the climate-resilient agricultural practices have the potential to earn carbon credits (CC) up to 5CC/ha and 1 carbon credit is equal to US$37. 15000 hectares have this potential, according to A. K. Singh.

Further, integrated farming on small farm holdings – crop, horticulture, household dairy, backyard poultry, small pond-culture, and home-grown ducks – will cross-hold risks and pave the way for farmer doubling his income erelong. Sustainability of agricultural growth is assured thus through heavy capital investments in climate resistant technologies, cashing in carbon credits sooner than later, change in the mind-set of lenders and farmers to accelerate lending, and appropriate insurance mechanisms that are farmer-friendly.

*This article is based largely on a couple of lectures: 1. V. Praveen Rao, at the Fifth International Agronomy Congress and A.K. Singh, at the Farm and Rural Science Foundation’s J. Raghotham Reddy Memorial Lecture. The views expressed are mine.

Future is bright for Indian Agriculture – But Reforms Imminent.

B. Yerram Raju*

Agriculture is one sector that takes all the four factors of production – land, labour, capital, and organisation/management - in full measure, and consumes the scarcest resource water additionally. Several limitations surround the future of agriculture. Land is limited and there are several claims from dwellers to industrialists. So is water and capital. Management depends on the absorption of the latest technologies.

India has only 4 percent of world’s wate resources. Its present population of around 1.39bn is likely to escalate to 1.69bn according to population experts. Improving (a) water resources’ optimization, (b) productivity of the small holdings that constitute 50 percent of the arable land, (c) technologies unique to the production systems of India, (d) integrating all types of agricultural activities and (e) resilience to climate change, is imperative.

India’s agricultural growth (1950-2020) can be seen in many areas: the second largest horticultural production in the world; the highest milk production in the world, witnessing twelve-fold growth; the second largest fish production in the world. It is now a net exporter and its agricultural production is 44 percent higher than that of the US. According to Praveen Rao, Vice Chancellor, PJTS Agricultural University, Hyderabad, India’s agricultural GDP rose from US$ 15bn in 1960 to US$101bn in 2000. During the next sixteen years, the growth was 350 percent more than that registered during the preceding thirty years.    

A.K. Singh, Director, Indian Agricultural Research Institute of ICAR, in his most recent J. Raghotham Reddy memorial lecture at Hyderabad, highlighted that despite 32.7 percent increase in the area during 1951-2021, the production increased by almost six times, and productivity increased by 4.5 times during the same period, maintaining the food security. The period did not saw pestilence and famines in the country. Market-assisted Selection (MAS) is now an integral part of the cultivar development programmes at the ICAR institutions and several agricultural universities, developing 74 crop cultivars in seven different crops -rice, wheat, pearl millet, chickpea, soybean, groundnut, and maize. This still leaves the challenge of India producing 333mt of food grains to feed its projected 1.64bn population by 2050.

As per the NSSO (2014), about 232 million persons are employed still in agriculture (49 per cent of the workforce), contributing about 17 per cent of the GDP. The number seems to have come down to about 219 million in 2015, which is still a very significant number (Kapoor, 2017). A NITI Aayog study estimated the agricultural labour productivity is one-third of the non-agricultural sectors. There is severe shortage of farm labour either to cut the sugarcane crop or cotton picking – the two largest labour-absorbing crops.

Telangana State is the first state to commence growing single-pick cotton from this year, thanks to the intense research by the PJTSAU under the specific directive of the farmer-Chief Minister, K. Chandrasekhar Rao. Farmers are eagerly looking for assured yields of this variety to save the labour costs.

Farming has been the focus and not the farmer of all the research that no doubt yielded excellent results. Doubling of farmers’ income by 2025 is still a dream, because reforms in agriculture sector were just ignored for the last three decades. Small farmer and tenant farmers realised that they have to turn as entrepreneurs for sustainable growth. Several start-ups in farm field have lately come up. Still, aggregators at the farm gate, marketing reforms and easy access to credit beg attention of the policy maker, more so, when we look at the technological innovations that A. K. Singh spoke off:  1. Molecular breeding, 2. Crop biofortification, 3. Microbial technologies, 4. Climate change and mitigation strategies, 5. Satellite remote-sensing technology, 6. Precision agriculture, and 7. Improving irrigation efficiency.

In addition to speed breeding, genome breeding, and use of remote sensing techniques, drone technology for smart agriculture is making deep inroads. A. Drone Sensing for mapping and discrimination of crops, monitoring crop stress – biotic and abiotic, yield damage assessment, soil fertility, and for agri-input applications are some of the drone-based technologies.

While it is true that a century beyond will see the disruptive technologies shaping agriculture growth, the way forward would be in investing in human resources and infrastructure for disruptive innovations (at least 1.4 percent of GDP in agriculture), like Internet of technologies (IoT), AI, ML, Block Chain leading climate, smart, regenerative and remunerative agriculture, adoption of management practices integrating small farm holdings, and mainstreaming the biofortified crops and nutrition literacy.

Investment should come either from the farmer’s equity or his ability to raise the debt. Debt markets in India are deeply suspicious of the farmer and small entrepreneur. Therefore, there is need for a cultural shift in lending to the farm sector. Second, all the above technologies still carry the risk of adverse weather and climate. They are also subject to the cyclones, tsunamis, floods, and holocausts. While crop related technologies are of short term nature, rest are all medium to long term capital investments. Agri-entrepreneurs should look to investments from angel funds, patient capital investors and social capital entrepreneurs. Green House Gas reduction from the climate-resilient agricultural practices have the potential to earn carbon credits (CC) up to 5CC/ha and 1 carbon credit is equal to US$37. 15000 hectares have this potential, according to A. K. Singh.

Further, integrated farming on small farm holdings – crop, horticulture, household dairy, backyard poultry, small pond-culture, and home-grown ducks – will cross-hold risks and pave the way for farmer doubling his income erelong. Sustainability of agricultural growth is assured thus through heavy capital investments in climate resistant technologies, cashing in carbon credits sooner than later, change in the mind-set of lenders and farmers to accelerate lending, and appropriate insurance mechanisms that are farmer-friendly.

*This article is based largely on a couple of lectures: 1. V. Praveen Rao, at the Fifth International Agronomy Congress and A.K. Singh, at the Farm and Rural Science Foundation’s J. Raghotham Reddy Memorial Lecture. The views expressed are mine.

 

 Future is bright for Indian Agriculture – But Reforms Imminent.

B. Yerram Raju*

Agriculture is one sector that takes all the four factors of production – land, labour, capital, and organisation/management - in full measure, and consumes the scarcest resource water additionally. Several limitations surround the future of agriculture. Land is limited and there are several claims from dwellers to industrialists. So is water and capital. Management depends on the absorption of the latest technologies.

India has only 4 percent of world’s wate resources. Its present population of around 1.39bn is likely to escalate to 1.69bn according to population experts. Improving (a) water resources’ optimization, (b) productivity of the small holdings that constitute 50 percent of the arable land, (c) technologies unique to the production systems of India, (d) integrating all types of agricultural activities and (e) resilience to climate change, is imperative.

India’s agricultural growth (1950-2020) can be seen in many areas: the second largest horticultural production in the world; the highest milk production in the world, witnessing twelve-fold growth; the second largest fish production in the world. It is now a net exporter and its agricultural production is 44 percent higher than that of the US. According to Praveen Rao, Vice Chancellor, PJTS Agricultural University, Hyderabad, India’s agricultural GDP rose from US$ 15bn in 1960 to US$101bn in 2000. During the next sixteen years, the growth was 350 percent more than that registered during the preceding thirty years.    

A.K. Singh, Director, Indian Agricultural Research Institute of ICAR, in his most recent J. Raghotham Reddy memorial lecture at Hyderabad, highlighted that despite 32.7 percent increase in the area during 1951-2021, the production increased by almost six times, and productivity increased by 4.5 times during the same period, maintaining the food security. The period did not saw pestilence and famines in the country. Market-assisted Selection (MAS) is now an integral part of the cultivar development programmes at the ICAR institutions and several agricultural universities, developing 74 crop cultivars in seven different crops -rice, wheat, pearl millet, chickpea, soybean, groundnut, and maize. This still leaves the challenge of India producing 333mt of food grains to feed its projected 1.64bn population by 2050.

As per the NSSO (2014), about 232 million persons are employed still in agriculture (49 per cent of the workforce), contributing about 17 per cent of the GDP. The number seems to have come down to about 219 million in 2015, which is still a very significant number (Kapoor, 2017). A NITI Aayog study estimated the agricultural labour productivity is one-third of the non-agricultural sectors. There is severe shortage of farm labour either to cut the sugarcane crop or cotton picking – the two largest labour-absorbing crops.

Telangana State is the first state to commence growing single-pick cotton from this year, thanks to the intense research by the PJTSAU under the specific directive of the farmer-Chief Minister, K. Chandrasekhar Rao. Farmers are eagerly looking for assured yields of this variety to save the labour costs.

Farming has been the focus and not the farmer of all the research that no doubt yielded excellent results. Doubling of farmers’ income by 2025 is still a dream, because reforms in agriculture sector were just ignored for the last three decades. Small farmer and tenant farmers realised that they have to turn as entrepreneurs for sustainable growth. Several start-ups in farm field have lately come up. Still, aggregators at the farm gate, marketing reforms and easy access to credit beg attention of the policy maker, more so, when we look at the technological innovations that A. K. Singh spoke off:  1. Molecular breeding, 2. Crop biofortification, 3. Microbial technologies, 4. Climate change and mitigation strategies, 5. Satellite remote-sensing technology, 6. Precision agriculture, and 7. Improving irrigation efficiency.

In addition to speed breeding, genome breeding, and use of remote sensing techniques, drone technology for smart agriculture is making deep inroads. A. Drone Sensing for mapping and discrimination of crops, monitoring crop stress – biotic and abiotic, yield damage assessment, soil fertility, and for agri-input applications are some of the drone-based technologies.

While it is true that a century beyond will see the disruptive technologies shaping agriculture growth, the way forward would be in investing in human resources and infrastructure for disruptive innovations (at least 1.4 percent of GDP in agriculture), like Internet of technologies (IoT), AI, ML, Block Chain leading climate, smart, regenerative and remunerative agriculture, adoption of management practices integrating small farm holdings, and mainstreaming the biofortified crops and nutrition literacy.

Investment should come either from the farmer’s equity or his ability to raise the debt. Debt markets in India are deeply suspicious of the farmer and small entrepreneur. Therefore, there is need for a cultural shift in lending to the farm sector. Second, all the above technologies still carry the risk of adverse weather and climate. They are also subject to the cyclones, tsunamis, floods, and holocausts. While crop related technologies are of short term nature, rest are all medium to long term capital investments. Agri-entrepreneurs should look to investments from angel funds, patient capital investors and social capital entrepreneurs. Green House Gas reduction from the climate-resilient agricultural practices have the potential to earn carbon credits (CC) up to 5CC/ha and 1 carbon credit is equal to US$37. 15000 hectares have this potential, according to A. K. Singh.

Further, integrated farming on small farm holdings – crop, horticulture, household dairy, backyard poultry, small pond-culture, and home-grown ducks – will cross-hold risks and pave the way for farmer doubling his income erelong. Sustainability of agricultural growth is assured thus through heavy capital investments in climate resistant technologies, cashing in carbon credits sooner than later, change in the mind-set of lenders and farmers to accelerate lending, and appropriate insurance mechanisms that are farmer-friendly.

*This article is based largely on a couple of lectures: 1. V. Praveen Rao, at the Fifth International Agronomy Congress and A.K. Singh, at the Farm and Rural Science Foundation’s J. Raghotham Reddy Memorial Lecture. The views expressed are mine.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/fincorp/future-is-bright-for-indian-agriculture-but-reforms-imminent/