Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Governance back on RBI Drawing Board

Governance in Banks back on the Drawing Board of RBI




India’s emergence as a global player is imminent and so would be a strong financial sector. RBI’s very comprehensive Discussion Paper on Governance in Banks comes as a formidable effort to set the house in order and bring about the much needed reforms in Banks. Large Balance Sheets do not add so much strength as it is just a reflection of one day in a year not so much as good governance.
There is a broad realization that change in the mindset among bankers would not come about by either the dictates of the RBI or its owner but internalizing the best governance factors. In evidence is the excess liquidity pumped into the Banks during the last six months and yet credit to the needy does not flow. Risk aversion needs reversal and this can happen with good, responsible and accountable governance.

Increasing Bank frauds, cyber crimes, arrest of some top executives and Chairpersons of reputed Banks like the ICICI, failures of PMC Bank, Times Bank, Yes Bank and several in hiding have obviously triggered the RBI getting to the drawing Board on Governance. The Paper has heavy referencing to the BCBS, OECD and Ashok Ganguly Report, bringing back to the drawing board of RBI its seriousness in action and not just intention.
Contextually, it is heartening to see that what I have been articulating since 1999: Corporate Governance in Banking & Finance (Tata-McGraw Hill, 2000 with YRK Reddy) and ‘A Saint in the Board Room’ (Konark Publishers: 2011) with R. Durgadoss, finds echo in the Paper. Two decades of wait is worth it.

The Government, going by the experience so far, considers that institutions created under its fold are sacred cows and should therefore be protected at the cost of the exchequer. Hopefully, the GoI would embrace these governance reforms in PSBs and hasten corrections with a sense of urgency.
There is enough proof in India that regulation and bank supervision are interdependent and not of independent of governance in banks. Both have limitations with effective interplay among them. Viewing from this angle, the discussion now unfolded specifies the key stakeholders’ role; distinguishes the role of non-executive director from independent director and workmanship Director.  
A foundation is built for the whole house; there are not separate silos for the kitchen and bedrooms. In the same way, audit, compliance and risk management should maintain their necessary independence — but not operate in three different silos. Governance is the binding force/material and it rests on the Board. It helps all the three groups speak the same language and connect with business processes and products.

The Discussion surrounds the audit and risk processes as more proactive than reactive unlike now. Once the house is built, no one would like to go to foundation to make changes. Therefore, change management is extremely crucial. Board cannot be expected to do the change management function. Change management requires federated ownership to cite a GRC framework study.
There are two aspects needed for the actions mentioned in the discussion paper to trigger, although experts in various fields alone are taken on bank boards. Knowledge cannot be taken as something given and permanent and it requires frequent updation.

1.    Board of Directors should themselves be prepared for new responsibilities and new roles. In the first meeting of the Board, the first item of the agenda should be the series of actions ordained in the Discussion Paper of RBI and their understanding in the present and emerging context. Each Director may be asked to furnish upfront what he or she would like to contribute to the Board and the objectives of the Bank. This would be the Board’s review point half-yearly and annually. Qualitative change will become possible through this measure.

2.    Half-yearly retreats for self-renewal of Board Directors away from the traditional Board meetings has potential for a free and open discussion on the issues - both internal and external to the organization. It is not common practice to have separate budget for Board management. It is good to have Board approved budget for its own functioning and knowledge upgradation. Usually good directors will be on the learning curve and hence, wisdom lies in taking advantage of it. ‘Fresh thinking’ that the RBI advocated would be possible with such measure.

Even mega Banks, measured by their Balance Sheets, suffer from issues that they would prefer to hide, wherein lies the danger. One of the leading large PSBs in its latest balance sheet has very low net interest earnings – not just due to low credit outflow but more due to gains in the reduction in the interest rate on deposits, for 9 times in a year! Depositors are minority stakeholders. It’s profit is made up out of sale of its stake in a subsidiary and not due to core banking business where credit sale is poor and deposits rose despite and not because of its efforts.

RBI cannot be a gatekeeper of the Banks. It can only direct the Banks to take care of the interests with due concern for the economy and the various other constituents. It is here that whistle blower policy implementation becomes crucial. We have seen lackadaisical responses even on RTI questions and references to the Courts for seeking responses. Such approach will not hold validity if transparency in dealing with issues that affect the persons in responsibility.

The Paper has fully accommodated the recent statement of the FM that the Banks need not be afraid of the three ‘C’s – CVC, CBI, CAG by such references being made only on Board decision  after fully exhausting internal examination and action.

While minority shareholders’ interest may be taken care of, depositors turning a minority stakeholder, would harm the interests of banks in the long run. The correction can come from governance and the RBI’s latest approach makes adequate mention of it in its paper.

It is also interesting to find that the RBI as regulator would divest its participatory role in the Board. Hope Government of India would not raise any objection on this issue. It has been noticed thus far that the value RBI Director imparted in the Board disclosures has not been significant.

There is a thin line between the non-Executive Directors and Independent Directors and this subtlety has been well addressed in specifying their roles in the NRC Committee and Audit Committee. Risk management Committee Chair to be directly responsible to the Chairman is worthy to note. It has rightly identified Risk Appetite framework as crucial for the eventual risk measurement and management. Those who cannot risk prudently cannot get reward. It could have specified that non-performers, because of their clean slate, cannot be elevated to key management positions in the organisation and the Board should ensure this through its effective oversight.

While it has kept its banner line on culture and values, it could have also constituted Ethics Committee with an outside expert nominee of the RBI to chair it and make it responsible to the Chairman directly. Business Ethics is an oxymoron and therefore, defining it is crucial in financial institutions. Measuring Ethics has been templated by the writer in the book A Saint in the Board Room. Corporate Executives can be subjected to this test while the Board Directors are supposed to be ethical, having right values to uphold the organisational culture. The future tells it all.
*The author is an economist and risk management specialist. The views expressed are personal.



 https://www.moneylife.in/article/governance-in-banks-back-on-the-drawing-board-of-rbi/60655.html

Sunday, June 14, 2020

MAKING THE NEXT NORMAL WORK FOR TELANGANA MSMEs


Making the Next Normal Work for MSMEs:

NSS 73rd Round estimated 63.4mn non-agricultural enterprises in July-June 2016 with 84.2% as own-account enterprises, that is, entirely run by the promoters or their family members. They employ 111.3mn workers and remain as the second largest employer next to agriculture. 40% of the employment is with 11.4% of such enterprises. This formidable driver of the economy started shaking in the pre-covid slow down. Covid-19 compounded the problems. Several of them, known to be in the unorganized sector, often do not have regulatory compliances as their focus and this has mostly led to lack of trust between them and their lenders.

Several Surveys, CII, FICCI, Skoch Foundation, RGICS reveal that near about 70% had adverse effects on their businesses. Only 4-5 percent mentioned that their businesses improved. The sector has the resilience and entertains optimism in going forward.

Telangana, the fastest growing State in India with good and consistent EODB rankings has many things to ponder post pandemic as the markets and the world are not going to be as before. Preparing for the future has to be on strong foundation.

Economic growth engines of State of Telangana - the real estate, infra and construction, Pharmaceuticals, IT and ITeS are likely to be on tardy growth for the next six months. Tourism, entertainment, event management that have seen phenomenal growth during the last four years will have to wait for almost a year to come back to their glory. All these have strong supply chain linkage with the MSMEs at the front-end.

Telangana State, with around 33000 MSMEs (with 7842 sick or incipient sick), the steady growth can be expected from only 10% of them in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, electronics and defence-oriented industries. Aeronautics will be on slow gear for a year.

Contribution of Mining, a fast growing sector, emerging from Nizamabad, Warangal and Khammam, Nalgonda districts is unlikely to recover because of the low footfall of Chinese buyers of granite in February due to Covid-19.. Marketing pitch through select Indian embassies showcasing Telangana strengths in raw granite and the incentives they offer for setting up processing investments and pollution clearances faster than any other country, should be a strategy worthy of pursuit.

As one of the leading growing States in the country, we have the unique advantage of Make-in-Telangana brand for all the food and aqua manufacturing industries. Packing, packaging, logistics should back-end the efforts of agro-industrialisation of the State. If we can keep safety standards in place we can really replace Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Taiwan and Indonesia in agro-based industries. We should develop them in small village clusters and not aim big clusters. It is good to have large number of well-integrated small clusters around villages and have well-developed logistics at each Mandal level.

HR mapping is extremely important. Every industry would like to optimise on time and resources. Work from home may become the new normal. After all, industry having tasted human meat in tough times, would like to continue. New wage norms will also come in to being. Focus will be more on leadership challenges and quick deliverables. Job losses will stare at the State.

All the skill development centers should be developed in consonance with the requirements of the agro-industrial and agri-business clusters. Post-school education should be integrated with the requirements of the industry. Telangana will thus be the largest employer as well.

New enterprises should be built on knowledge and skills. Forward integration in Markets and Backward integration in raw material supply with strong value chains built, the State will bejewel the country. Focus more on employing 75 to 85 % of both rural and urban working force.

Effective mobilization on global funds may be cost effective beyond FRBM norms for agricultural and allied sectors and for SME's to be globally competitive. It is time that the State should have its own Small Finance Bank not that it will have freedom to do as it likes beyond the RBI norms but will have the scope to leverage its priorities and timely deliveries on its own call.

When it wants more FDIs and FPIs to come in, it should be strong in MSMEs. The present near 25-26 percent of sick MSMEs will not certainly be able to attract the global investments. Hence Telangana Industrial Health Clinic Ltd needs to be strengthened with better inter-linkages with the existing lenders and NBFCs and greater resources – both by way of grants and loans.

MSME growth is debt driven thus far and not equity driven. Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan targeted release of 20% of additional collateral free credit and the State’s share is estimated at Rs.12,000 cr. Of this, as per the data of Ministry of Finance, GoI as of 9th June 2020, of the Rs.1129.69cr sanctions to 19,965 accounts, Rs.633cr has been disbursed to 11,133 accounts. Banks will go for safe target and provide credit to not all those who need and who had adverse Covid impact, but to those who will reverse their NPA path. The subordinate debt to the stressed enterprises with Rs.20000cr fund backed by CGTMSE to the extent of around 23% default rate, is yet to benefit stressed enterprises due to delayed release of operational guidelines.

We need a strong and unwavering banking sector. State can think of having its own Small Finance Bank with public equity participation. Coupled with Telangana State Cooperative Bank, Srinidhi Bank and TIHCL the State’s credit infrastructure has potential to address the future needs of the state economy.
Tough times requires more tough solutions and we should be part of solution and not of the problem as Sadguru mentioned. The State has no room for complacence.
*Published this invited paper in the CII-Telangana News Letter MARCH-MAY 2020 ISSUE.


Monday, May 25, 2020

Making the best of the situation - Ten Point Plan for MSMEs in Pandemic

MSMEs – Think Anew and Act Afresh
A Ten Point Plan

MSME Surveys done by various organizations revealed that the packages released by the FM under Atma Nirbhar Abhiyan are not going to benefit them much. Now is the time to think afresh and move fast to be back on rails without expecting much from the Government over and above the guarantees announced. There is full realization among the MSMEs that they should live in debt, survive and if God helps, grow.

If there were perverse incentives earlier that only made them perpetuate small in size and not grow, now they will have to contend with no incentives but to grow with their own ingenuity. In a debt syndrome, this can happen only when there is a strong environment of mutual trust between the lender and borrower. Some State Governments are trying to create a better ecosystem and help the MSMEs.

What you should do as a MSME in this emerging scenario?
Covid-19 in a way opens a chapter in their enterprises. You are an important link in the supply chain and it is time that you make the government come to you and not you stand before them with a begging bowl. You should be able to dictate your supply terms instead of bemoaning that you are after all a cog in the wheel.

There have been surfeit of ideas and strategies but the question that stands in front of you, is: how to respond to their work force who were forced on holiday under lockdown and incentivize them to work for the Company?

All that the Bank wisemen would do is to give a moratorium for principal and interest if their credit record held you good – a standard asset in bank language – by January 2019, a la March 2020, the beginning of lockdown.
1.    
Make a reasonable assessment of receivables by discussing with the debtors. This will measure up the duration risk of receivables.
2.    Take full count of the stock available and see if there is any redundancy. Clear up all the useless stock.
3.    Assess the demand for the product in the context of sluggishness around in Consumption and the steep fall in Consumption index. It is very likely that the product required either a makeover or change in complexion.
4.    Set up a digitization environment – have a desktop or laptop and buy a ERP solution if you are beyond Rs.1.5cr turnover. Up to 1.5cr turnover, you have Zoho ERP solution offered by the MSME Ministry free of cost. Avail it. Incorporate every aspect of your data – from buyers to sellers, buy to sale, cash to credit, stocks to receivables and enable GST compliance. This will save you the bother of compliance. Any regulatory requirement either from the Bank or the Government, you can pull out.
5.    Take work force into confidence: Discuss with them how they would like to be paid their arrears given the firm’s predicament. Place before them your increased obligation to the Bank and tell them what would it mean to pay wages and salaries from the Credit window of the Bank and how much dip would be there for the firm. Disclose your own financial position.
6.    Present the future market scenario before them and the prospects it holds both within and outside the country. You may also discuss with them whether they would like to partner with you in the future of the enterprise taking into account the new dynamics of the market. Give them an undertaking that their wages and salaries will be packaged as mutually agreed after paying at least one month’s arrears.
7.    Strategize for attaining a brand value for your product within a set timeframe.
8.    Discuss with all the other units engaged in producing similar products to gain advantage of (a) a co-working space; (b) co-branding; (c) rational pricing of the product; (d) clusterizing for purchase of raw material in bulk on a shared e-commerce platform; (e) rediscovering the price of the final product taking the logistics into consideration.
9.    Rework your Business Continuity Plan and arrive at viability of your enterprise in the emerging post-Covid environment.
10. Place your cash flow position for the next 3, 6, 9, and 12 weeks and seek your Bank’s support.

In States like Telangana you have Industrial Health Clinic to help you out. In other States you have some responsible outfits of Associations like FISME in New Delhi, TANSTIA-FNF centre, KASSIA in Karnataka, etc., that would be happy to suggest right strategies. There would be little purpose in wasting your time any longer waiting for things to happen since the economy is opening up.

*The writer is Adviser, Government of Telangana, Telangana Industrial Health Clinic ltd and author of the Story of Indian MSMEs.
https://knnindia.co.in/news/newsdetails/msme/msmes-think-anew-and-act-afresh-a-ten-point-plan

Saturday, May 23, 2020

The Sweet and Sour Package for MSMEs



Following the PM’s thunderous announcement of Rs.20trn constituting 10% of GDP, the highest by any government post-pandemic, the Finance Minister came up with a six-point package sounding big relief for the MSMEs. When the final figures came for counting the five-day pack whittled down to bare 2% of GDP. Will the relief be long lasting or comfort, lasting for short time?

MSME sector is soar over the package as it did not provide virtually any relief for either payment of wages or immediate payment of bills pending with the government itself ( approximately Rs.5trillion – both the GoI, PSUs and State Governments) and even forbearance of the loans for at least 180 days.
The initial moratorium on the term loan instalments and working capital and the deferment of working capital were just a breather in pandemic. Since the units were under lockdown, most of those availed, have no output to support the additional working capital. They are now offered relief in the margin. This would mean that the Banks would give more working capital loan against deficient stocks, wages to the labour for the lockdown period etc.,- knowing it as an unsustainable debt because there is a National Credit Guarantee Trust and there is pressure to deliver by September 2020. Against this, Cabinet provided Rs.41,600cr over a three year period. Banks are not happy with this type of guarantee dispensation since they still have to provide for likely capital erosion.
MSMEs that received the incremental credit during the quarter Mar-June 2020 post-Covid at 7.4% p.a., are now told that they have to pay 9.25% for Emergency Credit Relief Package extending over four years with a moratorium of one year!

The other measure is a follow-up of Budget 2020-21. The FM announced sub-ordinated debt  (SOD) at the hands of the same banks that have all along been winking at the revival of micro and small enterprises and on easy and timely credit access as part of Covid relief package.  
Banks that do not have a subordinated debt in their balance sheets thus far, should now look for providing it under investment category and that too upfront labeling it as NPA!! They should develop standard operating procedures and help the clientele know of the nuances of availing it. To embrace innovation for a sector that is always viewed with suspicion, will they fall in line with the thinking of the FM?

Subordinated debt in simple terms is defined as a debt subject to subordination when there is creditor’s default. If ‘A’ Bank has offered a subordinated debt to a micro, small or medium enterprise, and this enterprise goes bankrupt after a certain period, and therefore becomes a defaulter. Bank cannot claim the money it has given as a loan from the enterprise’s earnings or assets.
After the senior debts are paid off in full, the left over will accrue to the clearance of the subordinated debt. Singular advantage however is that in case of Companies (this category is just 2 to 2.5% of the total MSME borrowers) bank will receive its SOD claim ahead of preferred and equity shareholders. Banks will be able to recover their usual unsubordinated debt in the shape of term loans and working capital ahead of sub-ordinated debt.

This simply means that SOD is riskier than the normal term loan and working capital loan offered either as cash credit or overdraft. Banks that have been lurking to grant loans against CGTMSE guarantee to the extent of Rs.2 crores cannot be expected to grant SOD again at the same guarantee window!

Sub-ordinate debt, by definition, stands higher in risk and lower than the principal loan in terms of claims by the Bank. For Rs.20000cr infusion, CGTMSE is being given Rs.4000cr. It would have been a fairer had she extended the Rs.3lakh sovereign guarantee cover to these set of borrowers too. Offering this high-risk product to already declared NPAs could trigger lot of problems in operationalising this product.

It will be now for the Banks to roll out the product. Standard operating procedures for releasing this SOD will be very tough if not tricky for the Banks. On top, the CGTMSE guarantee with which the banks are already unhappy is supposed to provide guarantee. Quite likely, several of the 2lakh MSMEs pitted out this benefit may have already been covered by the CGTMSE and the claims must be hanging at one end or the other for consideration in order that the banks concerned will close the NPA accounts!!

It is advisable instead to offer equity to micro and small manufacturing firms – proprietary or partnerships, most of them – up to 50% of their total financial requirements and the balance as debt. This equity should be left untouched by the Banks for a period of five years. The purpose for which such equity is rolled out shall be for buying a leasehold right/outright sale in the site where the manufacturing unit is set up and or purchase of machinery/technology or acquiring of intellectual property rights. Once it is given as equity, Banks will be forced to become the development partners that may provide route for scaling up the enterprises from the micro to small and small to medium.
Assessment of revenue stream and monitoring it continuously is extremely important to culture the enterprise in apportioning some percentage towards the equity contributed by the Bank. There are two ways of ensuring this: 1. Banks physically monitor the functioning of the enterprise as its partners to its committed capacity; 2. Set up a consent-based ERP architecture to monitor their debtors, creditors, sales and cash flows on the system. The purpose is to ensure that any aberrations are remedied timely.

Such equity can flow across the enterprises but shall be on sound credit risk assessment and effective follow up and supervision.

Banks with their limited manpower can hardly be expected to do the former. Handholding, mentoring and counseling continuously and ensuring that the enterprise makes seamless transition from unorganized to organized, Banks may have to outsource these services to competent and State Government accredited professional institutions. Even regarding the second step, Banks should be able to re-engineer their work- spaces and train their executives to catch up with the task.
Relief package is at best a pack of intentions. The relief is additional loan burden. MSMEs’ cost of production will go up at a time when they are totally uncertain about the demand. They also become uncompetitive compared to any other SME across the globe that has received cash relief and interest-free loan to rebuild their manufacturing business.

Neither RBI nor GoI has issued operational guidelines for the treatment of existing NPAs. Without revival of the viable micro and small manufacturing enterprise and carving out a definitive future, Banks taking part in equity of such firms through sub-ordinated debt route will be a wild goose chase.
But for the risky NPAs, sub-ordinate debt to roll out is a future, worthy to watch. Banks may innovate, who knows? In essence, the package is sweet in words and soar in delivery.

https://telanganatoday.com/sweet-on-words-sour-in-delivery


Thursday, May 14, 2020

MSME Releif package, Some good moves


MSME Relief Package: Some good first moves

Collateral Free Automatic Loan for MSME. Those MSME having Loan upto Rs.25cr and turnover up to Rs.100cr will be covered in this scheme. 100% Central Govt Guaranteed. Will help 40 Lac Units. This loan will be for 4 Yrs with a Moratorium of 12 Months. 45 Lakh MSME Units will get benefit from It. Total 3 Lakh Cr Loan will be Given under this scheme. This covers only the Emergency Credit Line. 

And this FM clarified is only for the standard assets. This means that those who became eligible under the earlier restructuring scheme of January 7, 2019 will get covered. If these units stopped functioning due to Covid-19 and were put on moratorium of 3 months and additional credit support under Covid will alone be eligible. This means that existing collaterals will continue and existing CGTMSE wherever extended might also continue. But the additional credit facility post Covid operations will get covered by this new guarantee mechanism and this is in itself unique. Nowhere it was mentioned that entire outstanding up to the thresholds will be covered under the new guarantee scheme. Hence this should be taken for whatever is worth. This will however kick up appetite for lending to MSMEs by banks.

Rs. 20000Cr will be infused as Subordinate Debt for stressed MSME. 2 Lakh SME will get benefit from this. Govt will provide Rs.4000 cr to CGTSME Trust. Sub-ordinate debt, by definition, stands higher in risk and lower than the principal loan in terms of claims by the Bank. For Rs.20000cr infusion CGTMSE is being given Rs.4000cr. It would have been a fairer had she extended the 

Rs.3lakh guarantee cover to these set of borrowers too. Offering this high risk product to already declared NPAs could trigger lot of problems in operationalising this product.

Fund of Fund to be created. Rs 50000cr will be infused as equity to standard MSME that will help them to expand their capacities. This is not going to be immediate because the Fund giver will evaluate the IRR as usual before extending such equity.

Definition of MSME changed. But for this definition change can take effect only when the MSME Development Act 2006 changes. It is hoped that Government will bring about suitable ordinance to give effect to this change.
.
Government has earlier mooted change to replace investment criterion with turnover and amendment was mooted in the Parliament. Parliamentary Committee was also appointed. Again, a separate Committee was also set up to examine this aspect. While the Report of the Committee is yet to be out, the FM has announced this change. But this change is good for future as several economies in the globe adopted dual criteria – either investment and turnover or employment and turnover under various thresholds. This is a big correction that will benefit the sector grow vertically as investment criterion has only spawned the numbers horizontally and distorted the incentives and global competitiveness.

Tenders up to Rs.200Cr relating to Govt procurement will not be Global Tenders any more. MSMEs will get benefit out of this direction. E-Market Linkage will be provided to all MSMEs due to less possibility of trade fairs and industrial exhibitions in different countries post pandemic. Another advantage is that all outstanding bills of Union Govt and Central PSUs will be cleared by them within 45 Days.
The views expressed are personal. He is the author of the Story of Indian MSMEs.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Ten point Policy for MSMEs


Sweet nothings for MSMEs
Risk aversion can’t be turned into risk appetite with excess liquidity in the hands of hesitant lenders

MSMEs, the lifeline of the economy and the main job-provider, has no oxygen left. The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have been the worst affected by the pandemic but only sweet nothings have been coming as announcements for the sector. The RBI offered a deceptive comfort: standard assets as on March 1, 2020, would get a relief of three-month moratorium with no interest relief; review of the working capital requirements and pumping in liquidity of the order of 3.37% of GDP combined with the GoI relief for the weaker sections by way of cash remittances into the Jan Dhan accounts.

There was further relief by way of refinance from Sidbi: Rs 50,000 crore; Nabard: Rs 25,000 crore among others. The net result of previous liquidity injection as per the RBI April 2020 Bulletin is 0.7% year-on-year credit growth for the industry. Sectorwise: manufacturing micro and small enterprises was -0.4%; food processing: -3.1%; textiles: -6.6%; leather and leather products: -2.3%, all engineering: -0.4, state-sponsored SC/ST credit: -70.4%; export credit: -13.2%. Will all these negatives turn positive with the new liquidity? Risk aversion cannot be turned into risk appetite with excess liquidity in the hands of a hesitant lender.
In a pandemic, history tells us that massive credit and large fiscal expansion should go in sync to pump-prime the economy to a new normal.

Realistic View

When the manufacturing MSMEs open their shutters, they will find all the machinery waiting to be greased; sheds to be broomed; factory premises to be sanitised, and all tools readied. Several bills pending for payment require renegotiation. Labour will mainly demand their lost wages rather than renewing their work.

All supply chains are choked and each link in the chain needs to be looked at by the size of investment needed for re-functioning to the level of at least 60% capacity, Without this, interest commitments may not be honoured. The entrepreneur will, therefore, have to set his priorities right and decide which corners need to be cut and which widened.

The immediate trigger for enterprises in Telangana is deferment of fixed electricity charges for April and May without penalty and they will get 1% rebate on payment.

Several enterprises would first search for cash from banks and NBFCs. This would depend on the collateral securities they had and their previous track record. Banks are not poised as of now to lend on a cash flow basis. They may still try to work out estimates based on the pre-Covid-19 performance levels. This is the first tragedy. There may be a few understanding branch managers, who will take the risk and lend.

Next thing, the entrepreneur needs to negotiate with the existing labour. It will be a very hard negotiation and he will need to find money to pay the wages for the shutdown period first. Some understanding labour may oblige with deferred wages but they would be just a few. Most fair-weather friends would come up with suggestions like pledging gold; mortgaging excess property, etc but no cash. Private moneylenders too would be hard to come by.

The demands of all national associations like the CII, FCCI, PHDCCI have been kept waiting at the doors of the Finance Ministry. The UK Sinha Committee Report that recommended Rs 10,000 crore fund of funds and Rs 5,000 crore Distressed Asset Fund have not been set up. After set up, if they are kept in the conservative hands of Sidbi, it will be of no use. The Fund should address payment of wages of all the manufacturing MSMEs based on the muster roll and ESI evidence.
Assessing Demand
It is unlikely that products would be in demand at the same level. People have become austere. Every person, who faced a compensation cut, would continue to move the demand curve to essentials than FMCG. Sectors like pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, processed foods, packaging that were functioning on the fringe could move to higher capacities. All others will have to make rounds to the banks for their merciful looks!

Every enterprise will have to envision a new future – different scenarios have to be built and they should convince investors and lenders. They cannot look to the global markets immediately as the pandemic has levelled them all.

As far as India is concerned, a great opportunity is knocking. China has lost its sheen and credibility. Global markets hitherto linked to China would be looking at ways to pull off from them. Entrepreneurs should carefully set their trigger points. It is here that the policy vacuum can hurt hard.

Ten-Point Policy
  1. Redefine MSMEs by way of turnover
  2. Allocate specific portfolio for manufacturing sector to make ‘Made in India’ a reality
  3. Enterprise should digitise operations and have a consent-based ERP architecture
  4. Bundle up all existing credit (term loan plus working capital, inclusive of interest) for enterprises with a turnover of Rs 10 crore – extend a moratorium till December 31, 2020, after converting it into a Fixed Interest Term Loan carrying interest at 6% pa, for repayment thereafter in 48 annual instalments
  5. Evaluate working capital requirements on cash flow basis
  6. Discount all the bills drawn on government departments, PSUs and even large undertakings that carry credit rating of AAA and above at 75% and credit into the client account, provided the invoice clearly says that the purchase is within the approved annual budget.
  7. Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises should do portfolio guarantee up to Rs 5 crore and then second charge on the collateral security with the lender for the balance up to Rs 10 crore
  8. Declare NPA threshold at 180 days overdue and redefine the Special Mention Accounts — 0,1,2 at 60, 90, 180 days
  9. Review all existing limits, legal proceedings, auctions etc, and ensure that no viable enterprise will exit
  10. For the rest of the enterprises, make exit comfortable: fair treatment of sovereign dues; priority to the creditors on first-in-first out; and transfer of assets to those who would like to acquire them. These accounts should be subject to a third party review by a State government accredited agency.
Thereafter, the industry should draw up their trigger points and rational action plan in consultation with the lender/investor. All Industry Associations should nominate one or two active Executive Committee Members to form a think-tank or negotiating team for regular interface with both State and Union governments.
(The writer has authored ‘The Story of Indian MSMEs’)




Thursday, April 23, 2020

Making a Departure in Lock Down


Telangana makes a departure on Lockdown Strategy:

There are no two opinions on saving the humans should be of utmost importance when compared to saving the economy, although the economy lives longer than the human being. Therefore, strategically, saving the economy and saving the human life should run parallel as far as possible.
In the case of COVID-19, governments initially had no choice but to save lives by locking down to strictly enforcing people staying at home setting aside the economy’s interests very rightly. As things unfolded, there is broad realization that rescuing the economy from the recession and moving to V curve should also not brook any delay. In fact, compared to several States, Telangana has singular advantage moving on consistently high growth trajectory till April 2019.

The breather given by PM Modi on lockdown relaxation while extending the final date to May 3, 2020 allowed relaxations to keep several working populations in a new normal – barring the barbers who have the largest potential to spread the Covid. Welders, mechanics, electricians and even construction workers were all allowed to go back to work on the strict compliance of wearing the mask at work and maintaining social distance apart from frequent washing of hands with soap.
Those who open the workshops were asked to strictly follow the full sanitization of the area frequently and keeping the rest of the work-space tidy. It is expected that the discipline of 25-day lockdown will hold them in good stead. Telangana State differed on the agenda.

The State has a distinct place in the economic space in the country. Telangana's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) expanded at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.40 per cent (in Rupee terms) to Rs 8.67 trillion (US$ 126.81 billion) between 2011-12 and 2018-19. At a CAGR of 16.00 per cent (in Rupee terms), tertiary sector has been the fastest growing sector from 2011-12 to 2018-19 and accounted for 63.68 per cent share in the overall GSDP. As of November 2019, the total installed power capacity of Telangana state was 15,855.87 MW. Out of this, 8,103.65 MW was contributed by state utilities, 5,637.37 MW by private utilities and 2,114.85 MW by central utilities. The second reason for a possible smoother stand is the very confident way in which the State has been tackling the pandemic. A dedicated war room to monitor the cases mandal-wise has been set up right under the glare of the CM.

Agriculture and allied activities have merited the required relaxation on lockdown norms ahead of every other State and the Union Government. Even procurement of paddy and other major crops of the State are receiving active attention. The State also merited appreciation of the Union Government in handling Covid-19 in exemplary manner.
As revealed by the Chief Minister, four districts are free from Covid patients. The intensity of the attack is more localized in Hyderabad Municipal Area and the Greater Hyderabad has already been divided into red and hot zones with intense policing and strict adherence to discipline.
Districts are gradually turning to near normal , which according to his press review, are having a better doubling rate (10days), death rate (2.44% compared to 3.22% for the whole country) and recovery rate of 22% and a larger 354 test rate per million. The State, after seeing the sudden upsurge in Suryapet district, doubled the quarantine period to 28 days, again the only and the first State to take such decision.

In and around Hyderabad, pharma, medical equipment and relating packing and packaging are any way allowed to function even before the relaxations. They are all working to around 50 percent capacity.

MSMEs are the lifeline of the economy. The State has nearly 70000 of them and the most in micro and small sector with nearly 4 lakh employees. Therefore, allowing them to work in two stages - normal districts, near normal, which may commence after a week (27th May), the State would have many micro and small enterprises from near extinction post- Covid.

Some events have no history; but they create one like the Covid-19 attack that has levelled 210 nations in one stroke. Globe turned upside down during the last two months. In the whole crisis, India of 31 States with several of them having specific strengths in different manufacturing and production spaces has a great opportunity having already become a savior of 55 Covid- 19 affected nations.
Efforts to re-invent our Health sector are already on way with the decision of converting Gachiboli Stadium Temporary Covid-19 hospital into an advanced Health Institute. It is the Hospitals, doctors, nurses, health workers, scavengers, Defense Hospitals, army doctors and nurses – all in the Union and State governments that quickly rose remarkably to the task and rescued millions of lives, where the America failed. With no offence meant, private sector was nowhere near the task.

Telangana’s ability to leverage its strength and create a huge health infrastructure in government that would create new supply chains and new value chains deserves aplomb. It has unique place again in producing vaccines very successfully and CCMB is actively working on a new vaccine along with quite a few others. The other investments that attracted the globe are aerospace, defense, ITeS and Biosciences. Disaster management could be the new strength of the State.

It would be appropriate if the State would review its decision and release the lockdown in stages in districts next week and in GHMC areas during the first week of May 2020.


Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Drive out Covid-19

                Hell is Hell in COVID-19;
                Wearing mask is your devoted task; 

               Staying at home is your comfort;
               Social distance is your most wanted proximity;
               Driving out Carona is road to Heaven;
               Live like a king and help the popper. 
               Think rational and act national.
                     Author: B. Yerram Raju