Aspirational Budget 2019

Union Budget 2019 – Exceeded Expectations

Amidst the honco of high growth and reducing retail inflation this pre-Election Budget largely fulfilled the expectations of farmers, middle class, real estate. Disposable income in the hands of salary earners and the middle class would jump due to the increase in IT exemption limit to Rs.5.lakhs, up to Rs.50000 standard deduction and non-taxable income from bank and post office deposits up to Rs.40000 and this would surely spur the domestic savings stagnated at around 30% till now and also stimulates the demand.

Farmers certainly have something to cheer. All farmers having less than 5acres would get monthly income of Rs.6000 under direct benefit scheme. There were 12.76cr operational holdings under the command of farmers owning below 5 acres according to Agriculture Census. At the allocation of Rs.75000cr against this item of budget at Rs.6000 it can reach only 12.5cr if there was no further subdivision and fragmentation. But such a measure alone is a big bonanza for farmers. Integrated look at agriculture sector – animal husbandry and fisheries also got a big boost. One can’t expect more from interim budget. Tenant farmers are just ignored although 80% of suicides occurred in this group that has a share of 14% of land under cultivation according to the NSSO data.

Micro and small enterprises having loans up to Rs.1cr would get interest subvention of 2% for the first time. We should hope that this benefit would reach the intended and the banks would not take advantage of this concession.

NDA did well in the cleanliness drive; but performed poorly in providing safe drinking water. While the NDA spent 77% of allocation on this score, still its reach to the poor is far too distant. If the reach improves, expenditure on health may decline. Coupled with this, environmental clean up providing for fresh air should have been provided at least 2% of the Budget in line with the Climate commitments to the UN.

In this backdrop well calculated Fiscal Deficit would cross even the 3.4% of GDP. CAD at 2.3% is on sensitive border. If the oil prices go northwards, then this will upset the apple cart of growth and lead to higher inflation than the one taken forgranted at little above 2%. It will cross 5.5% during the next six months. Even RBI inflation expectation at 4% will have a zolt. 

Mention was made about Banks and NPAs. While the reforms like the IBC code accelerated the recovery process from the corporate loans much more clean up is required in the stables of banks, looking at the staggering frauds of Rs.41,500cr and the recent sacking of ICICI Bank CEO. Lot more is needed in improving governance over which the FM had no word.

Education is in a big mess and Employment is in doldrums. It is strategy rather than spending that requires attention in both the cases and real time monitoring is the need of the hour. This did not get any attention. Draft Employment Report of NSS unfolded a big rise in unemployment. When 55% of the population is below the age of 25 years, strategies for employment and enterprise promotion, and education are clear areas of neglect in the budget.

Budget understandably is at best an estimate. Although NDA has displayed better spending of the allocations, outcomes need regular monitoring and this should be done within the public glare.

Union Budget 2019

Union Budget 2019 – Reasonable Expectations

Amidst the honco of high growth and reducing retail inflation this pre-Election Budget has some just expectations. Tax-GDP ratio of 17.5% can be pitched up to 20% given the fact that the rich have been growing. Domestic savings at around 30% has to improve and investments have to be less volatile for which the foundation has been well laid by considerable acclaim in EODB.

Demand stimulation and medium term employment have to improve significantly. Farmers certainly have high hopes notwithstanding the limitations of union government in this regard as Agriculture is a concurrent subject. It is wise to give up the announcement of crop loan targets as it is not related to the Budget per se. States like Telangana and MP have done well in Income support schemes and Center would do well to support such initiatives in some appropriate proportion.

Assurance of Basic Income may have to wait for the 15^th Finance Commission’s recommendations. One announcement can be setting up a fund for Price compensation for farmers whenever the MSP and market prices have wide divergence at the point of farmer reach.

All the tenant farmers and small and marginal farmers above 65years could be provided pension of Rs.5000 per annum as their ability to work and earn their annual incomes is eroded completely by then. This can be done through a pooled fund out of the 2% of income earned on commodity exchanges and 1% of agricultural insurance premium.

NDA did well in the cleanliness drive; but performed poorly in providing safe drinking water. While the NDA spent 77% of allocation on this score, still its reach to the poor is far too distant. If the reach improves, expenditure on health may decline. Coupled with this, environmental clean up providing for fresh air should be provided at least 2% of the Budget.

Education is in a big mess and Employment is in doldrums. It is strategy rather than spending that requires attention in both the cases and real time monitoring is the need of the hour.

Banking: Restructure NABARD by hiving off RIDF portfolio; RRB and Cooperatives and Rural Development through Watershed, SHGs, FPOs and finance to tenant farmers and agriculture marketing as 3 separate subsidiaries. Similarly, SIDBI needs restructuring to provide assured lending to micro and small manufacturing enterprises and revival of incipient sick and sick MSMEs by way of external support mechanisms. Union Government would do well to announce any compelling credit products only through a committee of select bankers.

Budget understandably is a best estimate. But outcomes are important and they need effective monitoring.

12-point Agenda for the RBI Committee on MSMEs

Pain points for the MSME sector

MSMEs Credit woes in stock

The RBI has its task cut out as it sets about addressing the sector’s credit and viability concerns.

A debate on MSMEs has come alive due to the Centre’s insistence on a regulatory reprieve for the beleaguered sector post GST and post demonetisation. The RBI at its last Board meeting that Urjit Patel chaired, promised to set up a Committee on the MSME sector by the end of this month.

There is an estimate, authenticated by the Centre, that there are around 50 million MSMEs, both registered and unregistered, employing 120 million, second only to agriculture.

Credit crunch

MSMEs contribute 6.11 per cent of manufacturing GDP and 24.6 per cent of services GDP. They also account for 16 per cent of bank lending. Around 8 per cent of credit to manufacturing micro and small enterprises and 13 per cent to medium enterprises are estimated to be gross NPAs.

MUDRA (Micro Units Development and Refinance Ageny) and the ‘59-minute loan sanction’ promises enhanced credit reach to the sector with SIDBI in the lead for both. MUDRA helped banks to push the services sector lending below Rs. 5 lakh significantly.

Field studies reveal that MUDRA loans have been used by several banks to swap a good number of failing micro service sector loans. There is also evidence of moral hazard following adverse selection as several enterprises are non-traceable at the location mentioned in the applications.

In the band of Rs. 5-10 lakh the percentage of loans is less than 20 per cent, indicating preference for a risk free portfolio and lack of interest in the manufacturing sector.

The government has put in place e-Invoice, TReDX, Samadhan, GeM to ensure prompt payment of bills from public sector undertakings and central government departments. Even so, the State PSUs and state government departments continue to delay the bills of MSMEs, leading to NPAs.

A procurement policy has been put in place to provide for preferential purchase from MSMEs, without sacrificing the conditions of quality of goods and services supplied to the buyer.

The process of loan disbursal is also cumbersome. Quite a few banks follow a multi-layered approach to lend to the sector and as a result due diligence suffers. The branch that disburses is also expected to monitor and supervise the credit but does not have the time or manpower for that.

There is hardly any communication between the entrepreneur and the credit authority until an irregularity in the account surfaces.

So given declining credit and growing NPAs, the following 12-point Agenda is a way ahead for the RBI panel:

* Thresholds in priority sector portfolio.

* Credit risk assessment of the MSMEs

* Thresholds for declaring the MSMEs as NPAs — 98 per cent of the portfolio in the fold of proprietors/family owned enterprises in the shape of partnerships, have no exit route of the sort facilitated under the IBC code or the Industrial Disputes Act.

* Revival and restructuring of sick enterprises — Innovative institutional interventions like the Industrial Health Clinics in States that carry the highest numbers of enterprises in this category.

* Cluster Development — Additional lending incentives.

* SIDBI’s Role — Review and Redefine for assuming real leadership role.

* The guarantee mechanism in the shape of the Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprise (CGTMSE) needs to be reviewed and redefined.

It has a role conflict with SIDBI as the latter is its promoter and at the same time secures its guarantee for the enterprises financed directly by it. CGTMSE premia rates were found to be high by their primary lending institutions and the claim settlement process unacceptably late.

* Role of credit rating agencies and effectiveness of internal credit rating tools.

* Recommendations to the Centre on policy initiatives.

* Digitisation of MSME lending and managing its transition.

* Setting up of Movable Asset Registry — Operational issues and directions.

* Setting up of Public Credit Registry — Roadmap for data integration without sacrificing data

privacy and data security.

Given the cascading effect of the large corporate manufacturing and services enterprises on the MSMEs, their healthy growth is crucial for employment and growth of the manufacturing sector as a whole.

Since MSMEs are still largely debt driven and not equity driven, it is important that access to credit should be easier, cleaner, and faster.

The writer is Adviser, Government of Telangana on Micro and Small Enterprises

Published on December 27, 2018, The Hindu Business Line

Making MSMEs buzz again

Making MSMEs buzz again

The RBI’s decision to set up a high-level MSME Committee to resolve issues facing the sector gives some hope

Not all has been well with the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) since demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Credit declined. Debtors are mounting pressure. Labour is on the exit following aggressive online sales as a recent Trade Body report revealed.

But the intentions of the governments can’t be faulted. The Government of India (GoI) has put in place a robust public procurement policy. The GST led to the creation of Government eMarketplace (GeMs) and trade exchange (Tradex), which are making some inroads to resolve the delayed payments problems.

However, access to credit is still a problem. This has been flagged as an insurmountable problem by the GoI to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It is one of the problems that the RBI looked at with a six-month horizon through a high-level committee expected to be announced by the end of December 2018. New Year seems to start with a look at the Christmas Star!!

Defining MSMEs

The sector has multiple regulators but a single law: MSME Development Act 2006. The definition of the MSMEs based on investment was set to move to another single parameter – turnover — but was whittled down by Parliament. The ideal would be a combination of turnover and employment as this sector employs the largest number of people next only to agriculture. But most of the firms falling under the unregistered category mask actual employment. Developed economies like Germany and Malaysia having a large SME sector define them on these two parameters.

Only 16% of the MSMEs is estimated to have access to institutional credit. MSMEs that are self-funded account for 20% and include proprietary firms, private cooperatives, private self-help groups, khadi and village industries, coir industries and artisans providing huge employment opportunities. They also ensure regional balance through industrialisation of rural remote and less developed areas.

Some 98% is still owner-driven – proprietary or family driven partnerships — and a few alone are in the private limited category. Having included services in the defined category of the sector since 2006, manufacturing has suffered heavily.

Looking at the global SME sector one would notice that India does not stand in isolation. While a few countries like Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands and China stand out in resolving problems affecting this sector, India is still in the melting pot striving to create an ecosystem congenial for the growth of MSMEs and providing easy access to credit.

Many Challenges

New schemes like Make in India, Start Up and Stand Up India, Mudra and the latest 59Minute sanctions have not altered the scenario significantly. The services sector crowds out the manufacturing sector. Around 95% of Mudra loans has also gone in favour of the services sector below the credit limit of Rs 5 lakh per enterprise.

Nearly a lakh of enterprises are estimated to be sick or non-functional. Banks that lent to them earlier hardly showed interest in their revival or restructuring despite clear guidelines from both the RBI and the GoI, going by the fact that only 7% are considered potentially viable and just around 2% revived with an average of less than Rs 14-15 lakh per enterprise. Though Industrial Health Clinics provide a ready answer as proved by the Telangana government, there are few takers among banks.

Several studies have brought out that access to credit is a major area that requires reforms. Several banks have been distancing themselves from both entrepreneurs and enterprises due to the multi-layered approach they follow — one markets the loans; the other scrutinises the application and processes; the third sanctions and the fourth at the branch-level finally disburses the loan. In the end, due to inadequate staff and limited knowledge, due diligence, monitoring and supervision suffer. Information asymmetry and adverse selection are the outcomes.

Simple Steps

Informal or unorganised enterprises still dominate the sector and formalising them requires simple documentation and extension of flexible terms of credit based on cash flows. High process costs and turnaround time; demand for excessive collateral; conflict between social objective and profitability; geographical disparities; high cost of funds; low scale-up capabilities; single product lines; and complex product regulation orders are major challenges to provide easy access to credit.

Inconvenient provisioning norms and non-performing loan threshold on a par with their elder brothers followed by poor intent and low ability to pay back the loans compound the challenges. Banks that debit inspection charges to the unit’s accounts can hardly agree to this deficiency in public. The regulator knows the position but has no solution.

Banks invariably insure machinery while extending credit to the MSMEs. However, there is no evidence that there are any claims that are settled save fire accident out of this insurance mechanism although premium is debited to the accounts. The Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises (CGTMSE) guarantees are issued in large measure for loans up to Rs 10 lakh mandatorily although such guarantee can be extended for loans up to Rs 2 crore.
Sidbi as an umbrella institution for the CGTMSE has a conflict of interest as the latter also extends guarantee to the loans sanctioned even by Sidbi directly. Sidbi even after 27 years of existence is yet to provide leadership in lending to the sector. Its schemes are thinly spread on the refinance window.

Data Integration

The Public Credit Registry that provides scope for better information flow across credit agencies requires digitisation of the sector that is estimated to have only 27% as digitally literate. If reliable data exists, integration challenges can be addressed when a data beehive is set up. In RBI Empowered Committees of MSMEs and SLBCs, data presented have no coherence. Integrity of data has been questioned many times.

Udyog Aadhaar of the Ministry of MSMEs – the enterprise registration data — does not capture data in full. If systems are to perform, data is crucial. Cleaning up existing data is the first step before new sets of data are put in place for integration of data across clientele bases and institutions with diverse capabilities.

The KC Chakrabarty Committee appointed by the RBI in 2007 and PMO Committee of 2009 were the last two committees that examined the issues in great depth and offered a few solutions. Credit to MSMEs in general, and MSEs in particular, has been looking southwards almost for seven years in a row. Cascading effect of the corporate sector NPAs still hangs on the vendors, viz, MSMEs. Challenges mentioned above still remain. At its November 2018 board meeting, the last of Urjit Patel as Governor, the RBI decided to set up a high-level MSME Committee to resolve several issues facing the sector. The sector as usual lives on hope.

(The author is an economist and senior banker. The views are personal)

Values are the Elixir of Life

Values are the elixir of life

Most countries which are less spiritual than India are less corrupt than us and they suffer from less poverty. Why should we have any spirituality at all in our country? Sadguru Jaggi Vasudev responded to this nicely. I thought of starting my discussion today with his thought.

Centuries ago, the whole world, far smaller than the one we are living today, no doubt, was looking to ancient India because India was very much in tune with both the outer and inner laws. Several tried to travel to India to learn and enjoy visiting the country. Columbus wanted to travel to India but landed in a different place; so was Vasco De Gama who landed in Panaji; it was Robert Clive who made to Calcutta. What was it that attracted them to this place? Only riches?  Jaggi Vasudev attributes it to spirituality.

Spirituality is something within of everyone and not one that you organize on the street, according to him. But we are doing too much outside and call it spirituality. “The physical existence is ruled by physical laws. If you are not in tune with them you suffer. Various cultures in the world have done far better than us in the world because they are in tune with the physical world.” However, their suffering within is untold, because they are not in tune with their inner laws. These inner laws teach us to be ambitious and not greedy; to have character with competence and not jealousy and incompetence and to live by values and culture but not by ego and extravaganza. Where are we after 71 years of independence? Why do we see greed everywhere? Why do we want to appear different from what we actually are? Politics and religion have some umbilical cord and this relationship whether Pope and the Church, Mohammad and Islam, Buddha and Peace, have all moved from the Court Halls of the then Kings or Monarchs.

Why Merger of PSBs not a good idea?

Human resource and cultural issues apart, most mergers in the past haven’t led to improvement in profits

Emboldened by the apparently frictionless merger of the associate banks with SBI, the Ministry of Finance has decided to merge two weak banks with one strong bank, namely, Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank, in the PSB (public sector bank) space. That this should happen exactly 10 years after the Great Recession of 2008, which was triggered by big banks, indicates a certain overconfidence about financial stability in India.

Since nationalisation, Indian banking has grown and exhibited much diversity in size, content and structure, represented by PSBs, regional rural banks, new generation private banks, old private banks, foreign banks, cooperative urban banks, cooperative rural banks, small payments banks, small finance banks, and NBFCs.

Business correspondents support the financial inclusion efforts of banks. Such diversity and effective regulatory oversight contained the contagion effect of the decade-old global recession on the Indian economy. The Narasimham Committee (1994), while arguing for six large globally competitive banks, preferred closing the weak banks to merging them with strong ones.

 

There have been 39 mergers and takeovers during the post-nationalisation period, which includes the SBI merger. It is important to draw lessons from all these mergers. While all banks reduced their presence in rural and semi-urban, non-profitable centres post-liberalisation, SBI, post-merger, closed 5,000 branches, thus effectively guillotining the plan to reach the unbanked poor.

Regulator-driven financial inclusion efforts of 2005, board-monitored measures, and Jan Dhan have supplemented the financial inclusion agenda. India Post Bank is the new institution aimed at taking banking services to the doorsteps of the least banked.

Against this backdrop, the latest merger is enigmatic.

Former RBI Governors YV Reddy, D Subba Rao and Raghuram Rajan have, on one occasion or the other, cautioned the government against seeing consolidation as a panacea for the ills of the banking system.

Though the RBI’s Financial Stability Report has estimated healthy economic growth of over 7.5 per cent for 2018, it has warned against complacency. And, this comes despite legal and regulatory measures to stem the NPA (non-performing asset) rot in banking through ‘market-based resolution plan for insolvency’ (IBC), putting 11 banks under surveillance via prompt corrective action plan, and continuing efforts to de-stress the sector.

The government, however, has put together another merger, even before the results of the PCA were known.

Of the three banks — Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank — slated for merger, BoB is on the plate for the second time in the merger exercise. As at the end of 2017-18, BoB was the biggest with a total income of ₹50,306 crore, a net loss of ₹2,432 crore and net NPA of 5.5 per cent. Vijaya Bank comes next, with a total income of ₹14,190 crore, a net profit of ₹727 crore, and net NPA of 4.4 per cent. And, Dena Bank recorded a total income of ₹10,096 crore, a net loss of ₹1,923 crore, and a net NPA of 11.95 per cent.

Profitability ratios

Results of a study by Jagadeeswaran et al on the pre- and post-merger comparisons of profitability — with the year of merger as base year — in the case of SBI, IOB, BoB, PNB, IDBI and OBC reveal that net profit to total income, net profit to interest income, net profit to total assets and net profit to net worth declined for all except PNB and BoB. The exception was partly due to the period of merger, when the capital regulations post-Basel did not hit them. Banking is all about financial intermediation. People are at the epicentre, both in front and behind the counters. The culture of the institutions is intertwined with the culture of the regions. Human resource and cultural issues have impeded the success of mergers across periods and nations.

It is, therefore, important that the big banks think twice before turning into unwieldy conglomerates. Basic banking and customer services cannot be compromised.

The government would do well to start development banks to fund infrastructure projects and, thereby, relieve PSBs of this task. Experience has demonstrated that PSBs are not right channel for the job as it involves their funding long-term projects with short term resources.

Universal banking did enough damage with banks selling more third-party products, eyeing hefty commissions, instead of focussing on core banking operations. Hopefully, thanks to the latest directive from the Finance Ministry, this damage will be minimal, where banks alone will stand to gain, and not the officials selling such products.

Looking ahead

While past accomplishments are no guarantee to future success, past failures can serve as good foundation for enduring success. To improve its own stock, the government would do well to concentrate on improving governance in PSBs, pledge not to interfere in loan sanctions, and move a resolution in Parliament that no party would indulge in loan write-offs either for the farm or other sectors unless the areas are affected by severe natural calamities.

Further, higher capital allocation with or without Basel-III cannot prevent bank failures triggered by systems, people and processes. Both demonetisation and GST had hit not just the MSMEs but also resulted in the lengthening of processing time. Even politically speaking, with elections round the corner, toying with the financial sector with mergers looks faulty, unwise and untimely.

Bet Big on MSMEs in Telangana

Bet big on MSMEs in Telangana

Low NPAs in the sector should drive financial institutions for proactive interventions rather than waiting for things to happen

The Telangana government has created efficient policy instruments around TS-iPASS, T-PRIDE, T-IDEA, RICH (Research and Innovation Circle of Hyderabad), TASK (Telangana Academy for Skill and Knowledge) and TIHCL (Telangana Industrial Health Clinic Limited) for the MSME ecosystem. The micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the State today do not face power outages, voltage fluctuations and scarcity of industrial water. Tolerance to pollution is going down slowly but surely.

Digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and man-machine learning, are changing the way businesses are moving. Large enterprises are also making a beeline to industrial parks and clusters like never before. Credit institutions, however, are yet to match these efforts.
The questions that arise now are: Where are the entrepreneurs? Why are they not crowding in? What to do to make the ecosystem deliver?

Copability and Capability

Risk profile of the MSME sector indicates the copability and capability of the financial sector. Business risks surrounding industry, markets, operational efficiency, management risks and financial risks impact credit quality and infringe on standalone credit risks. Low NPAs in the sector should drive financial institutions for proactive interventions and not wait for things to happen. Enhanced CGTMSE (Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises) threshold to Rs 2 crore is again an opportunity for the banks to move to trust-based lending from the balance sheet and ratio-based template lending platforms.

Both MSMEs and entrepreneurs are also changing the way they run their businesses. The other day I noticed as many as 60 young men and women at Cherlapally in the shoes of their parents or grandparents. The aspirations today for most of them are moving from legacy and archaic systems to newer ways of doing things; catching up with emerging technologies; setting up new systems and moving to global markets as well.

Banks should view such enterprises differently and wherever such change has been occurring; human assets should be valued and embedded into their risk profiles. This should enable better credit scoring and higher volume of credit to meet the challenges.

Cross-holding Risks

Going forward, industrial clusters should provide lenders a risk mitigation platform and for borrowers, scope for moving to value chain from supply chain management. But such clusters should have an interdependence between large enterprises and MSMEs in a seamless manner cross-holding the risks. All shall be on ERP platforms enabling easy data-based monitoring.

According to a recent report by the Planning Department, Adilabad, Gadwal, Rajanna Siricilla, Siddipet and Warangal districts require skill adaptation, promotion and skill building in textile technologies (handlooms, powerlooms, technical textiles, fabrics, apparel and readymade garments).

All other districts in Telangana, except Wanaparthy, require skills related to food processing machining, chemicals, and heat treatment. Wanaparthy district requires skillsets related to solar technology. TASK should also encompass providing for industry association interface and incubation centres in at least four key districts – Warangal, Nizamabad, Adilabad (around IIT) and scaling up the VTIs, ITI and polytechnics both in regard to technologies and faculty.

Mudra-enabled banks show more performance in the MSME sector but lending lags for manufacturing ones. Textile Mudra has extended the threshold to Rs 20 lakh at the extreme and this also provides a great opportunity for banks and NBFCs to lend for manufacturing MSMEs since the State is set to emerge as a major operator in the sector both in domestic and foreign markets. The future of MSMEs rests on embracing digital technology.

Declining growth in lending to the sector from commercial banks provided a great window of opportunity to the NBFCs. The latter are devising credit products based on GST data driven by the latest relaxations in thresholds and submission of returns and take very limited recourse to the credit rating agencies. CRAs have not been able to come up with a rating tool for new enterprises that the lenders can latch upon readily. Banks would do well to look at their lost loan book during the last five years. They should extend credit without cross-selling products like insurance and MF that led to the shortage of working capital upfront.

Competitiveness of future MSMEs comes from knowledge-based enterprises and global markets. Entrepreneur development centres in the DICs, NIMSME, and MSME-DI should work in collaboration to identify and train entrepreneurs and develop shelf of projects around the prospects within the shortest possible time. Lending institutions should tweak their products to cater to such situation providing environment for growth.

Disciplined Accounting

The MSMEs’ rate of vertical growth has not much to cheer as micro and small tended to remain in that status for decades. Product differentiation and price differentiation continue to be drawing less attention. Organisation of their sales books needs the willpower to move on disciplined accounting track. This would mean a change in the mindset of most of them. Digital training of both bank staff and MSMEs needs tools for kick-starting learning appetite within optimal costs for such initiatives.

Banks should consider failure as integral to the development. The GoI in its draft industrial policy has recognised Industrial Health Clinic modelled on TIHCL as a key intervention. Revival of a viable enterprise revives dormant fixed assets and sustains employment in the sector.

The government is also committed to seeing the MSMEs in good health. Seventy-five MSMEs through TIHCL are set to join the recently turned around Rajarajeswari Spinning Mills, Sirpur Kagaz Mills and the likes, with special support from the government.

Opportunity mapping as indicated in the infograph unfolds a large canvas for those who can take the risks and manage them well. Time and tide wait for none. Banks and NBFCs would do well to seize the emerging opportunities in the sector.

https://telanganatoday.com/bet-big-on-msmes-in-telangana

India Did Well: Needs More Reforms

The political economy of India enters the 72nd Independence Day with a sense of pride, no doubt, with the third largest economy of the world on an uptick of 7.5% growth rate. What is more, there is hope of consistency in such growth. GST, a showpiece of cooperative federalism, is the major indirect tax reform on the road to stabilization after the recent rate modifications and relaxed quarterly return submission. All it now needs is bringing fuel prices under its ambit. Yet, the nation cries for more reforms to ensure equity and social justice to all.

The Worries:

Core Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to a 3-year high in July 2018 at 5.7%, while Wholesale Price Index moved to a six year high. Inflation is set to breach 5% in 2018, crossing the benchmark rate of 4%. Fiscal policy will be under severe pressure during the current year with States’ contribution to the widening deficit as warned by a recent Study of State Finances by the RBI. Impending General Elections 2019 to Lok Sabha would add more fuel to this fire.

The rise in stock-market indices driven by more domestic investment of about Rs.66666cr in the backdrop of foreign portfolio investors pulling out Rs.4,583cr in 2018 thus far, has little to cheer as the balance of payments position continues to be weak. IMF in its Annual External Sector Report cautioned India against relying on global financial markets to fund current account deficit of 3% of GDP.  The over-valued US dollar in the wake of increasing oil prices is enough cause for our future worry. A few economists have already predicted a burst of the bubble sooner than later with the exodus of FIIs.

Developed India:

70 reforms during the last 71 years have led to the present status of development. The nation has a large unfinished agenda on education and health reforms. I would add one more: water security in the country.

National Water Commission’s (2012) recommendation for establishing Water Regulatory Authority in each State to ensure use and allocation of water as a precursor to attaining equity and social justice is yet to gain acceptance in the wake of water wars.

Government of Telangana holds a beacon light in water policy with the world acclaimed Mission Bhagirath assuring to provide drinking water to every household in the State every day and Mission Kakatiya, tank-linking project that cleaned up 30000 of 46000 tanks in the state. Adaptation to climate change, demand management and water use efficiency in the wake of ever declining ground water resources also deserve greater attention.

Fiscal Responsibility:

Fiscal deficit is bound to exist to some degree or the other as the State has a constitutional responsibility to ensure welfare, safety and security of all the citizens. The earning capabilities are not neutral to size of the villages on one side and the natural resource base of the villages on the other. Such fiscal deficit occurs right from decentralized level to the State and Central level.

The resources should preferably be from the sub-regional fiscal allocations – i.e., the panchayats and mandals, for the assessment of the need can best happen at the village level and not at the District and State levels. Therefore, there is need for insisting on a transparent mechanism of sub-regional allocations and releases of the resources.

The ability of the villages to levy taxes and cess just does not exist and even if it existed, it has to be integrated with the regional pool of resource. For example, property taxes, drinking water cess, drainage cess, etc can be collected at the village level and their deployment for effective maintenance can be ensured through a decentralized monitoring mechanism that should include professional surveillance and social audit.

Natural disasters are unpredictable and so are the resources required for restoring normalcy in the affected areas. Many a time the expenditure cannot wait assessment of damage. These will initially cut into the budgetary allocations for various sectors but have to be replaced with appropriate fiscal initiatives. A few states have recurring floods while a few others have frequently occurring drought. Each disaster cannot be treated with the same brush.

 “There is enough evidence of growth leading to reduction in poverty: Prof S.S. Bhalla has proved (Inclusion: January-March 2012) that during the 21-year period (1984-2005) growth was around 55% and poverty decline was about 2 percent per annum (in log terms). In the five year period since 2004-05, as the growth increased the pace of poverty decline also more than doubled to 4.7% per annum.”

Reaching the poor through Jan Dhan and Mobile access led to greater financial inclusion and the social benefits of schemes like Mid Day meals programmes with the twin aim of higher enrolment and lessening poverty at the Union level; Kalyan Lakshmi schemes easing the burden of marriage costs, schemes meant for financial and social security for the farmers through ‘Rythu Bandhu’ and Rythu Bhima of Telangana Government serving as role models; making MNREGS more inclusive, 2-bed room houses for the poor from Telangana Government; and central and state schemes for providing houses to the poor etc., are all in the direction of economic empowerment of the poor and social security.

Investment Climate

If investment climate has to distance from state led incentives, there is a case for more tax reforms. While the GoI may be happy at the steady inflows of direct taxes, there is a case of reduction in the income tax and corporate tax. Both are possible if the Government can eye on increasing the share transaction tax where the tax administration expense is almost zero. Both the buyer and seller of the shares buys or sells with an eye on gains. The present STT at 0.15% can move to 1%. Since the tax deducted instantly moves to revenue kit of GoI as all demat accounts FRBM comes with ease.

Finally, In the backdrop of unprecedented pile up of NPAs, financial sector reforms leading to improvement in governance of the PSBs cry for immediate attention. This should preferably start with the winding up of the Department of Banking with the GoI. All these reform measures have the potential to take the growth to higher trajectory with stability at the expected ten percent per annum.

Published in Telangana Today's Opinion Column on 15th August 2018.