India's Growth Story

The Apparent and the Real Growth Story of India

B.  Yerram Raju*

There was a chorus from some economists with former FMs joining against the transitory decline in the GDP growth as though GDP is a strong determinant of growth. High growth and high inflation are good friends (see the table below) and the net result has resulted in poor becoming poorer and rich, the richer.

S.No.	Particulars	Average 2009-10 to  2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18 First quarter
1	Real GDP@ market prices (%change)	7.4	7.5	8.0	7.1	5.7
2	Inflation (CPI-Industrial workers) (average %change) Wholesale price Index (average % change	10.3 7.1	6.3 1.3	5.6 -3.7	4.1 1.7	1.8 1.9

Source: RBI Annual Report 2016-17 and monthly Report September 2017.

Notwithstanding some of the good things that NDA government has done like the laws to regulate the Real Estate sector and the Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, amending 87 rules for FDI in 21 sectors, abating corruption in some quarters and the GST introduction etc., resounding alarm has been the faulty(ed) demonetization, the GST glitches and the enigmatic oil prices that have lost the relationship with the crude price variations.

In the context of monetary policy announcement there is another chorus for reduction in interest rates as though such reduction in the backdrop of risk aversion of the banks due to the unrelenting NPAs would kick start fresh demand for credit. All the rate cuts thus far failed to result in any fresh credit or a pass through to the existing clients to spur demand. It is doubtful that RBI would have the luxury of another rate cut in the emerging economic uncertainties and falling rupee on the Forex front. Stock markets became nervous with the global undercurrents of rising unrest between North Korea and USA.

While demonetisation set in a trail that closed the a lakh and odd shell companies and disqualified 3lakh directors apart from around Rs.30000cr tax evasion, GST is in the process of bringing in better tax compliance. Going by global experience, GST will take a minimum of two years to stabilise. However, what the GST missed out is a big worry: skipping the petrol, diesel and trade in waste and scrap. A rough estimate says that the city of Mumbai alone has a turnover of Rs.1trn a year in waste and scrap. Huge black money hides here because all deals are in cash even now.

Rising fiscal deficit is another major concern. The States in the emerging political context and certain states by habit have been indulging in distributive justice without productive gains. Gujarat elections are a case in instance where the insurance companies against no fall in agriculture production are in line for responding to unsustainable claim settlements under PMBY.

In addition dragging farm sector despite good monsoon, education and health sectors are the other bigger causes for the present imbroglio in the economy.

Pragmatic government would have started addressing more worrisome issues like the rising unemployment and declining manufacturing, certainly not as a consequence of the reforms but as a cause.

Nation with more young population in the backdrop of consistent unemployment rate of 7-8% during the last three years is also facing the rising aged working population with bulging demand for high pension budget. NSSO 2011-12 Employment Survey – the one quoted by NITI Aayog in its Vision 2017-20 – admits to 51% of the workforce employed in manufacture and services, contributing to 83% share in the economy.

The Vision Document failed to make MSMEs the centre of manufacturing and employment growth.  MUDRA should move to targeting micro manufacturing enterprises in the ‘Tarun’ window. A crore of Rupees investment in manufacturing MSEs would give rise to average of six persons while six crore rupees in medium and six hundred crores in large enterprises would give rise to employing no more than ten and a couple of hundreds respectively. Its emphasis on the high-productivity high-wage jobs in the large industry sector is misplaced while its focus on infrastructure investment is laudable.

Before any strategic corrective interventions are made, the government must listen to dissenting voices both from within and outside. While fresh investments in infrastructure like Rail, Road and Ports are welcome, corrections to the failed infrastructure would require less investments if the Industrial Estates of the yester-era do not turn into havens of real estate instead of manufacturing hubs.

If the next budget typically focuses on elections and fails to provide the much needed investments in education, safe drinking water, health and bolstering manufacturing sector realising that the Make-in-India and Start-Up India remained as slogans both the economy and the NDA are going to witness a decent burial. If every citizen in the country can get safe drinking water health budget of the poor would come down by 70-80 percent. This should be the next mission of the Government.

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GOI DRAFT INDUSTRIAL POLICY

Industrial Policy 2017 needs re-discussion to make a stronger case for MSMEs: Expert

New Delhi, Sept 15 (KNN) With reference to the draft Industrial Policy 2017, the government has announced a set of measures for the different sectors of the industry, including the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises. However this is a need of discussion along several lines in order to make the policy a strong case for the sector, Yerram Raju, Economist opined.

Guru Brahma Namonnamah

Remembering my Teachers

Guru Brahma Gururvishnu Gururdevo Maheswarah:

Parents take the throne on the Teachers’ Galaxy. My Pranams.

Indraganti Hanumatsastri, my Telugu Teacher in 8^th standard at District Board National High School, Ramachandrapuram, East Godavari District guided me to win a district level debate competition at Rajahmundry in 1952 on the subject – ‘Is Adult Franchise good for India’s Body Politic?’ in Telugu.

S. Radhakrishnan, my English teacher and Head Master at the Board National High School, Bapatla laid firm foundation and he never spared the cane when it came to correcting grammatical errors. He introduced Wren & Martin English Grammar as part of our regular curriculum.

Diwakarla Rama Murthy, brother of Divakarla Venkatavadhani of Osmania University taught us writing poetry in Telugu while at Intermediate in Mrs. A.V.N. College, Visakhapatnam (1957).

Greater fortune blessed me in the higher studies at Sri Venkateswara University College to have been taught during my graduation course by Rayaprolu Subba Rao and Pingali Lakshmikantham; M.V. Rama Sarma, old poetry (Milton’s Paradise Lost); Mrs. Suryakantam (Thomas Hardy’s Return of the Native and Galsworthy’s Strife); Shakespeare’s ‘Macbeth’ and ‘As You Like It’.

Luckier still during my Post Graduation in Economics – Prof E.K. Warrier; Prof. M.S. Prakasa Rao who laid foundation in the  subject by making me read the original authors: Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations; John Maynard Keynes – General Theory of Employment; Kenneth Boulding – Economic Analysis that earned me distinction in M.A (Economics) in 1962. It was Prof. Prakasa Rao who advised me that if I do not have an idea to contribute on my own, I should not attempt an article. He guided me into publishing my first article on ‘Governance in Cooperatives – A Case Study of Tirupati Town Cooperative Stores’, in the Madras Cooperative Journal in 1962. This foundation saw me as author of hundreds of articles and 15 books in Economics and Management.

Greatest of my youngest teachers is C. Venkata Ratnam who adorned Gitam Institute of Foreign Trade during its formative years and International Management Institute later who guided me for doctoral thesis in 1984. He sent out the Application for admission to Andhra University Ph.D. Course in 1981 when I was Lead Bank Officer of the SBI at Sangareddy. I completed my Ph.D course in commerce and management studies with the subject – Credit Planning in Medak District.

It is my teachers who made me what I am today with positive outlook, unblemished career, humility and happiness in life. All the errors and omissions are truly mine.

On this Teachers’ Day I am greatly beholden to them. I seek their eternal blessings.

“గురువులు, శబ్దబ్రహ్మ

స్వరూప లలితాశ్రయులు,  రసవదిష్టార్థ

స్ఫురదమృతకంఠులు,  కవీ

శ్వరులు, తదుద్బుద్ధ చరణ చరితము నెంతున్‌.” మాతృ గీతా; Acharya Rayaprolu Subbarao

'For Whom the Bell Tolls?' Bank Mergers

Consolidation, Convergence and Competition of Banks in India

Cooperative Banking suffering weak governance, poor legal framework, dual regulation, and excessive politicisation is in search of sustainable solutions and the consolidation move in the three states rightly highlighted by Bloomberg in its article a few days ago is perhaps the right move. Following the recommendations of Vyas Committee (2005) NABARD amalgamated the 196 RRBs established under the Multi-Agency approach to rural lending in the country during a fifteen year period till 1990 into 64 by 2013. This amalgamation has only partial success as the RRBs are still distant from the objectives of their creation in 1975.

1991-2001 saw bank disintermediation in the wake of financial liberalisation, prudential norms and profitability focus. Directed credit program was blamed for the rising NPAs till then. I recall Dr.Y.V.Reddy mentioning in his latest book ‘Advice and Dissent’: “the seeds for bad times are always sown in good times.” 2003 was the year of ‘crazy credit’ that took the route of CDRs in 2010 and 2011. This grew into a immature NPA adult and aged along to reach the unsustainable level of around Rs.8trillion. Courtesy this situation, lazy banking had set in.

NPAs of MSEs Need Alert Banking

NPAs of MSEs Need alert Banking

Grouped under unorganized sector, micro, small enterprises (MSEs) are suppliers to the organized medium and large enterprises. With GST they would migrate from unorganized to organized territory ere long.

Many entrepreneurs have been wondering about their future as their working capital cycles shake up. Credit to them has been on the continuous decline from the banks. In spite of GoI guidelines of June 2015 and master directions of the RBI, several deserving non-willful defaulters’ accounts have not been revived/restructured. Zonal Committees for MSME stressed asset resolution continue to make an apology of their presence. The remedy suggested by the RBI in its master directions with SMA(0,1,2) proved worse than the disease going by the analysis presented below based on the data in RBI Bulletin January 2017.

Obstinate NPAs refuse to leave

Dynamics of NPAs Defy Sensitivities

B. Yerram Raju*

Non-performing Assets (NPA) are a dynamic statistic moving from Rs. 2.50trn in 2013 by nearly four times in four years! Unless the patient cooperates the medicine never works in the sense that it has to be taken on time and in required dose. Here the doctor has been experimenting with the medicine and the patient is unwilling to take it.

Corporate Debt Restructuring measure suggested post 2008 crisis, corrective action plans, Joint Lenders’ forum, 5:25 scheme, strategic debt restructuring (SDR), Sustainable structuring of stressed assets (S4) Scheme have all proved a damp squib and now the regulator-led solution through amendment to the Banking Regulation Act to invoke the provisions of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code against the wilful defaulters is made to appear a surgical strike at bad debts.

Any credit decision is bounded by certain forecasts or predictions about future. It is unlikely that every such decision would end up as expected. Hence NPAs are inevitable in lending. But credit assessed for corporate entities requires a finesse. The promoters and directors should be put to the rigor of scrutiny. Environment and economic risks should be part of enterprise risk assessment. When we look at the largesse in lending in the corporate sector, hindsight and individual appraisal of the directors and promoters as also post disbursement monitoring appear to have taken a beating. Banks’ scrutiny lapses could not be drubbed as willful default for a forceful recovery.

The Banks, Government owning most of them, and the RBI have been in the know of the devil in detail. After the Development Banks have been wound up and universal banking came into being where banks started selling credit, mutual funds, insurance etc., and bank-participated rating institutions or their semblance commenced rating the companies, credit risk assessment has become farcical. Lenders are aware that they are lending short term resources for long term investments prone to very high risk of losses. Banks say they were forced to lend to PSUs.

Bank executives eyeing for the top post or those that are in such high post wanting to hold to the chair compromised institutional interests.  The other reason for such credit for infrastructure, real estate, housing, and retail facilitated arm chair lending suiting their limitations in staff recruitment. They earned profits at the cost of efficiency with impunity. 

Bank Boards having the regulators’ and the GOI representatives as Directors liberally subscribed their signatures to the sanctions. Risk management committees, audit committees of Boards, regular audits and inspection reports at annual intervals should have been the instruments of Board oversight mechanism.  Unfortunately all these would appear to have muted. Failures of governance are beyond action.

CDR mechanism helped greening the balance sheets of banks. The postponed debt obligations swooped on the banks after the CDR ended. Banks realized that they had to provide 30 percent of the secured portion and 100 percent of the unsecured for all the doubtful accounts. By the time the CDR ended Banks realized that the tangible securities have all vanished. To save the banks, RBI introduced SDR. Under SDR, banks can convert 51% of debt into equity to be owned by them and also change the management. New investors could hardly be found as the amount involved is over Rs.2trillion.  Management changes could hardly be seen. In the consortium of bankers another peculiarity noticeable was that while one bank declared the asset as standard asset other bank(s) declared it as doubtful calling for action due to the former finding ways to push the ghost of NPA under the carpet.

S4 can be termed a non-starter. Unanimity in restructuring effort proved rarity. On top of this, banks started showing ‘vigilance’ from agencies like the CBI as villains. In most cases where such vigilance stumbled upon, many skeletons in the cupboard of such banks came out and some executive directors and chair persons were also exposed!!

The latest RBI measure to invoke the IBC and also provide for deep haircuts without fear of the ‘vigilance’ bodies has to prove itself as the IBC requires thorough understanding of the art and science of negotiation and arbitration. Until all the stakeholders, advocates and the jury fully acquaint the terms used in the IBC, resolution through this process would be a long and difficult journey given the fact that the banks have not been able to make use of the easiest Sarfaesi Act and its rules in good measure.Recovery effort in most of the cases instead of ‘squeezing oil out of sand’ may be a milking cow for the errant.

It is time for the RBI to step out of the Bank Boards notwithstanding the losses that their planted directors by way of intangibles could be subject to. Regulatory arbitrage shall not take place to preserve the sanctity of central bank. In more than one way, dynamics of NPAs thus far defied sensitivities in resolution. Hopefully, RBI will be able to doctor a solution to the five-star hospital patient.

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My address at the launch of LOGO and website of TIHCL

Innovation is the hallmark of growth and the progressive industry policy of our Government has plenty of it. Just about an year ago, when I and the then Commissioner of Industries Mr. Manickaraj, now collector of Sangareddy district presented a case for such innovation, our Hon’ble Minister quickly endorsed it and added his own input to make the investment in the clinic wide based with the MSME participation. He is the first ever State Minister to visit the RBI with the then Principal Secretary and Commissioner of Industries in October 2016 to espouse the cause of aggrieved sector over the failure of the banks and inadequate response from the regulator.

This first state-promoted NBFC incorporated on the 7^th of this month headed by a very experienced CEO Mr. M. Sanjaya, former General Manager, Rural Planning and Credit Dept of the RBI, stratgised its one hundred crore rupee corpus fund with 10% seeding from the State Government through TSIDC into three principal arms: Make in Telangana; Grow in Telangana; and Turn Around Management with the support of research base, case studies, and strong advisory and consulting support. A few of the banks have already shown interest in contributing to the Corpus fund that promises 7% yield after a couple of years of lock-in period.

Micro and small manufacturing enterprises in the state have little start-up funding and no more than 2% of turn-around management.  

This diagnostic and curative clinic provides responsible and responsive consultancy and hand-holding support to ward off the compliance risks of banks in start-ups and revival. The incipient sick will be provided bridge finance to prevent sickness as decided by the Board.

The TIHCL targets on average five to ten enterprises per month per district during the coming year providing employment to around 5000 persons.

Just one service sector Small enterprise from our state is listed on the SME Exchange for the last six years of its existence. In order to encourage the manufacturing Small enterprises running on profits with good product range for the last 3 years to move to the equity markets our Clinic in coordination with NSE-EDGE and BSE and after proper due diligence will participate to an extent of 10% of the issue up to a maximum of Rs.50 lakhs. During the first year ten enterprises are targeted.

Employment, growth and zero-NPA MSEs in manufacturing are our targets. An independent Board with professionals will drive these initiatives. The country has no parallel elsewhere. At a time when NPAs and distressed assets are bugging the banking industry and Government of India our Government with this initiative will be the torch bearer for the MSE sector. 

Ethics and Governance in Banks in India

Banking reforms should target ethics and governance

Dr B Yerram Raju  and  Vikas Singh
02 May 2017 14  

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has put four banks on its critical watch list and warned another ten to spruce up their capital. What prompted the RBI to do this is anybody’s guess. Both the warning and action are sorely needed.

Huge bank frauds are reported, many of them from public sector banks (PSBs). An analysis of both frauds and the increasing non-performing assets (NPAs) suggests that the attention of banks to their basic functions of deposit and credit has diminished in the wake of their search for non-banking products like mutual funds and insurance, which offer hefty commissions to all cadres of officers. 

Neither the PJ Nayak Committee’s suggested governance reforms, leading to the setting up of the Bank Board Bureau (BBB) for selection of directors and chairpersons, nor Indra Dhanush seem to have improved the governance of banks. There is deep erosion in values and governance, in PSBs in particular and the Indian financial system in general.