The year ends on a note
of despair.
The NDA approved Twelfth Plan with a revised pragmatic growth of 8%
for the plan period. From Kaushik Basu to Assocham predictions for growth of
the economy this fiscal stay put at no more than 6%. European markets continue
to destabilize global situation with less hope of revival than the US markets,
where the fiscal cliff is addressed legislatively and affirmative action.
RBI is more pragmatic and
makes it range bound 5-6 percent. All the Ministries involved in infrastructure
development are bit by scandals galore and cases of corruption engulfing them.
Welfare ministries have excess expenditure and ill-directed subsidies. Fiscal deficit
has reached unsustainable levels. Public sector disinvestment takes a beating.
Poverty measured by the
number of mobile users and the increase in the self-help groups though has declined;
its definition from the altars of power created flutter and remains unresolved.
No State can claim reliable statistics on the poor.
The so-called reverse
of policy paralysis is caught in action paralysis at the end with the wasted
days more than the functioning days of the Parliament.
For fifteen days, youth
all over the country, are driven to streets with the most heinous rape incidents
demanding legislative and judicial actions to remedy the gender crime.
RBI in its latest
Financial Stability Report rings alarm bells. The non-performing assets of the
public sector banks that occupy 80% of the country’s financial space are
proving to be a perpetual worry in the backdrop of even extended start date for
Basel III capital norms to come in from 1st April 2013 instead of 1st
January 2013. Current Account deficit at 4.5% is at unsustainable levels.
Federal relationship
has put the tax reforms on the edge. The Direct Tax reforms and the
introduction of GST are in imbroglio.
Cash transfer scheme
slated for 40 districts initially halved by the target date as the back-ended
AADHAR has thrown up many data inconsistencies and corrections even in the
districts that issued the ID cards to all the citizens. The schemes linked to
PDS and gas distribution consuming more subsidies had to be put on hold for
introduction till April 2013. Verification and validation of Aadhar card data
is proving tough. Banks’ and Post Offices’ preparedness to introduce the scheme
leaves much to be desired.
Inflation is still on
the rise and measures to arrest gold imports to respond to demand pressures
announced as though it is a New Year gift from the Finance Minister would
hardly contribute to stabilization of the volatile commodity markets. Supply
side issues have been addressed inadequately.
Both Health and
Education sectors are bogged down with insufficient budget allocations and
inefficient administration in most States.
States’ respect for the
Constitution is on the wane demonstrated by the unresponsiveness to the only
progressive legislation of the UPA Government in 2012- the 97th
Constitution Amendment Act 2012 that targeted correction to mis-governance and
mismanagement of the Cooperatives, the fourth economic pillar of the country.
Still the ethos of India
built largely on optimism hopes for turning the tide in favour of value-driven
growth and equity.
The basis of my hope is
that the Federal Relations are under review by the veteran past Bank Regulator
and a former civil servant, Dr Y.V.Reddy. second, the tough measures suggested
by the RBI for arresting the concentration risk from NBFCs dealing with
gold-based financial products, and the revised pricing mechanisms for fixing
the gas and energy prices suggested by Dr Rangarajan in his latest Report
awaiting clearance from the Governement. SEBI has already moved in for more
reforms in the capital markets.
I would certainly join the chorus of hopefuls at the beginning of 2013.