Saturday, January 23, 2021

2021 and Beyond

 


It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...” This is how Charles Dickens begins his novel, A Tale of Two Cities.

Bottom of Form

Vision and Strategies Change

 This is an apt description of this age. We are at a maddening speed in technologies. Industry 4.0 has entered. Artificial intelligence, block chain technologies, man machine learning, robotics are the decisive forces of change in most organisations. Digital applications are replacing the traditional gurus (teachers). Tick boxes define the success of persons, whether in schools or office selections. People would like to travel, if possible, at the speed of light. Several corporates are rewriting their vision and strategy documents.   

 Conflicting Contours

 If those characteristics define the age of wisdom, street fights, large family divorces, abandoned children in larger numbers than before, failures in inter-country relationships redefining trade rules, ignoring climate warnings, several persons yearning to cross the boundaries aiming high only to know that ‘distant hills look green’, reflect the age of foolishness. 

 Mobocracy Vs Democracy

 With Joe Biden taking over the reins of the largest democracy, democracy would appear to be on the path of restoration. But, on the other hand, in India, with the unrelenting farmers’ agitation, mobocracy seem to be asserting itself, mainly because of the failure in following the Constitutional process for a well-thought-out reform in the sector. With 123 amendments, Indian Constitution seems to be under attack off and on and begs for a comprehensive overhaul, so as to keep the Fundamental Rights enshrined there intact.

 Financial Sector 

 In the financial sector, Covid-19 shook the world while in India, the scenario is much worse as frauds and cybercrimes are surging, threatening financial stability. Reforms in this sector should move strategies ahead of structures. Two World Bank economists in a recent blog commenting on asset purchases in emerging markets and developing economies, say that unconventional policies and unconventional times had set in. “History is a reminder to central bank’s credibility if asset purchase programs are used for prolonged monetary financing of fiscal deficits.”

 Investments in water, environment, natural resources, education, health and hygiene, and emerging technologies would be the defining features of sustainability.

 Ethics in Governance and Yoga

 Ethics in governance and transformation processes seem to be of criticality. Albert Einstein had said, “We should be men of values rather than men of success, ” Winston Churchill had said “We should extend values beyond our homes.” The corporate executives are selling their professional skills and not their conscience. It is the attitude to life and the value system one has to cherish and live with. Values are not like a sensex graph varying every day or with every person. Values are universal in character. It is the application of values that has been undergoing a change. Clean minds are as important as clean physics and dharmic yoga makes more sense than mere physical yoga embraced by people in different parts of the world, with PM Modi’s clarion call to the nation since 2014. 

 Post Covid, the stars surface

 During this third millennium, with sputnik science reaching for livable space even on Jupiter and the moon, India would be moving ahead of other nations and prove its leadership in space technologies. She has already proved herself as a leader in pharmaceuticals and software and would move its best foot forward in the transformational world. No wonder McKinsey in its most recent article has put Asia as the leader of the future and generations will define the future in terms of pre-Covid and post Covid. 

 The year 2021 and beyond will see the world transiting to a different horizon. The wisdom of the aged will fall behind the expectations of youth and it is this youth that are going to redefine the age ahead. I am not a soothsayer but the writings on the wall are clear.

 (The writer, an economist and risk management specialist, is author of “Roots to Fruits – The Journey of A Development Banker.” The views are personal.) 

   https://www.moneylife.in/article/2021-and-beyond/62745.html

 

 

 

Monday, January 11, 2021

Democracy is in peril - Save Democracies

 Indian Express today carried a banner story with the title: "When history is rewritten, US Courts many be singled out for protecting national elections. Capitol Hill was put to flames and the whole of US should have been in rage. But there are a section of Republicans insisting on the reversal of election process with Trump hegemony to continue. 

There are an estimated 33mn expatriots and several Indians among them serving in the most reputed IT firms either with \US base or with India base. Their voice should also be heard. 

India stands out with the Supreme Court readying to deliver its judgment today on the Farmers' agitation against the three Farm Laws. Most protestors are from the three States of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh in the lead and some vested interests joining them. While it is true that the Acts have come into being without the expressed consent of the State Governments ruled by non-NDA States, there are a few silent supporters to these farm laws. 

Politics of India are dominated by the elitist farmers who were able to exploit the small and marginal farmers and vested interests ruling the Agricultural Market Yards in the States. They now throw the blame on these Acts as capitalistic and in support of capitalists and contract farmers. 

Contract farming is in vogue for the past two decades in one form or other. Organized Retail markets only enhanced their presence but to the absolute advantage of both the farmers, Collective farm organizations, and the customers of farm products. Today will be the historic day when the highest Court would decide their fate.

This apart, there are many a legislation like the one relating to universal identification through Aadhar Card identification that would also see the judgment today.

 "Public Perceptions: Public perceptions play an important role in policy formulation and implementation. In a 2014 report by Oxfam International titled Working for the Few polling from across the world captures the belief of many that laws and regulations are now de-signed to benefit the rich. A survey in six countries (Spain, Brazil, India, South Africa, the UK, and the US) showed that a majority of the people believe that laws are skewed in favor of the rich. Public expectations and perceptions, therefore, need to be considered seriously in public policy management in a democratic set-up.

 

Free Speech: This has been one of the key tests of democracy. After the social media platforms started giving expression to the free speech, governments in different parts of the world, without India as exception, started controlling it. Interestingly the Economist in its issue dated October 24, 2020 reported: “Our cover this week is about the rules of free speech in the era of social media. As online outrage mounts, pressure is growing to restrict ever more material. The big tech firms’ shifting attempts to clean up their platforms mean that a handful of unelected executives are determining the boundaries of what people can say: Is that good for society?" (Excerpt from my Autobiography: "Roots to Fruits, Part 2 Chapter 3, Development, Democracy, and Development with Human Development Focus").


Both Public perception and Free Speech are crucial elements of Constitutional Democracies. This does not imply that outrage and destruction are part of such expressions leading to tremendous waste of public resources at the will of the people. It is time that people who are against such outrage should have a free voice against them.

 


Sunday, November 8, 2020

Access to Finance: MSMEs

 

Access to Finance – the Achilles Heel for the MSMEs

Economic restructuring followed by financial deregulation has brought in its wake the need for a change in the very mindset of credit analysts. Infusion of liquidity into banks has strengthened confidence in depositors more than the borrowers.

Share of MSMEs in GDP was of the order of 29 percent with a credit flow constituting 15% of the total credit disbursal of Banks and NBFCs. This amounts to approximately Rs.17trn. Government of India in its overreach to $5trn economy by 2022, has proposed that the share of MSMEs in GDP should reach 50%.

We have seen the most enticing schemes under Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan Scheme 1 reached only 55% in terms of disbursements, which targeted incremental credit of 20% working capital to the pandemic-struck standard assets in the MSME sector. In regard to the second scheme that targeted the sub-standard and NPAs for revival and provision of equity banks are shy to move fast – in a once bitten, twice shy mood.

It is unfortunate that we should be discussing this issue for decades despite a number of initiatives taken by the RBI and GoI. Priority sector guidelines have been modified allowing banks to co-lend with all NBFCs with no restrictions in order to push lending to this sector. The measure should enhance the risk appetite among banks by co-sharing the risks with the NBFCs. During the years 2015-20, borrowers’ accounting practices moved to the regulatory conformance zone. This should actually rebuild the lost trust among lenders and borrowers.

In Telangana, as many as 8,435 MSME units have commenced their operations since formation of the state, with an investment of about Rs.11,487crore. Since January 2015, MSMEs have provided additional employment opportunities to approximately 1.59 lakh persons.

While micro industries account for approximately 58.07% of total units, their share of investment and employment generation is comparatively less—11.92% and 30.12%, respectively. Small units account for 63.44% of total MSME investment and 55.41% of total MSME employment—the highest for both categories.

Telangana is the only State to have set up a separate institution to revive and restructure the manufacturing micro and small enterprises, viz., Telangana Industrial Health Clinic Ltd with a seed capital of Rs.100mn.

A couple of case studies would be in order where the TIHCL have been successful in not just reviving the enterprise but also substantially scale up their operations, save the lock-down period.

In times of uncertainty as now, investors hesitate to start new enterprises except in greenfield areas like the IT and Pharma. We should not allow the existing viable enterprises to shut their doors for want of some critical funding or margin money or buttressing his equity.

M/s. Deccan Pulverisers Private Limited promoted by two women entrepreneurs, engaged in manufacturing mineral powder from quartz/feldspar mineral stones, availed a term loan from SFC to the extent of Rs.6.2mn without any arrangement for working capital. State Government has sanctioned Rs.2.1mn as investment subsidy and other incentives.

The machinery was ordered as soon as the Financial Institution (FI) sanctioned the loan, but the installation of machinery was delayed from vendors end. The business did not receive expected export orders and the promoter searched for buyers in the local markets. In initial stages could not find an appropriate buyer who can pay in 60 days due to this the receivables were delayed and the payments to the FI were also delayed, FI started charging penal interest for the delayed payments.

In the meantime, the constructed factory shed was damaged due to heavy rains and cyclone, the entrepreneur repaired the shed from his own funds. The project was not feasible with one machine as the margins were too low in the local markets the promoter has installed a second machine with his own funds and increased the unit’s production capacity.

Due to irregularities in the repayment, FI has issued demand notice on 6th September 2019 asking the unit to pay overdue interest and instalments amounting to ₹ 20 lacs by 1st October 2019, failing which they will take further steps like legal action etc., The promoter and the company were in the great stress as it shattered their goals and dreams.

After a detailed diagnostic study and discussion with the SFC, we arrived at a revival package for the unit. We noticed that the high interest rate of 17% p.a., and delay in arrival were the principal reasons for the unit to turn incipient sick.

 

TIHCL has extended critical amount funding that enabled him to regularise his term loan account with the SFC. We also arranged for the priority release of incentive blocked for a year. The sword on their necks has been removed and they started production in January this year. But the pandemic struck, and they could restart production only in July this year. At present they attained 80% of their capacity utilization and a turnover of Rs,8.2mn. One of the PSBs agreed in principle to sanction working capital as well.

 Another enterprise, Suresh Textiles, a sole proprietary unit similarly shattered was assisted by the TIHCL. This entrepreneur with 20 years of weaving experience has set up 40 semi-automatic power looms initially. Later he converted them to fully automatic looms to produce shirting cloth in the year 2017. He started commercial production in 2019, the year of slow growth of the economy. The unit stopped its operations during the period of upgradation for nearly six months. During this stress period he approached the TIHCL for a solution.

Problems Identified by TIHCL-

·       Ab Initio sickness detected due to inadequate financing

·       Introduction of GST post-sanctioning of loan caused additional burden on proprietor as equity parked for working capital was utilized for GST payments on machinery.

·       Subsequently this caused cash crunch for production and unit became sick within one year from establishment.

 Revival Package-

TIHCL has conducted diagnostic study and found that the unit has suffered shortage of working capital due to external factors.  It has proposed to the primary lender for enhancing the limits for operating the unit. 

As proposed, primary lender has sanctioned additional loan of ₹14 lakhs and TIHCL has sanctioned margin loan of ₹3.73 lakhs along with the primary lender for the revival of the unit.  TIHCL now handholding and reviewing the unit periodically for efficient business operations and to control the stress in the unit.  

Overall, post revival and rehabilitation by TIHCL, the unit is performing well and improved chances of growing the business.  From nil capacity, the unit has reached 50% capacity utilization during the last three months and is confident of reaching 100% capacity in the next four months.  His experience taught him that raw material bought from outside the State would save the input costs by 15%. He is prompt in repaying the instalments and is now poised for growing big.

 Both the units have digitised their operations and installed ERP solution that enabled the TIHCL to monitor off-site the units’ performance regularly and guide the entrepreneurs.

 In more than 80% of the units that knocked our doors for support, we noticed that their working capital eroded with the banks debiting the instalments on the retail loans sanctioned to them – either for buying a car or home or both. Where the housing loan is taken this automatically collateralized the otherwise CGTMSE guaranteed loan. Their failure to repay due to the eroded working capital, turned them NPA and proceedings against their securities followed as a natural course. MSMEs were the first option of banks to lure them to retail loans, that became their thrust area. It is advisable for the MSMEs to take retail loans from banks other than those that granted them the working capital and also have proper financial planning for their personal assets and enterprise assets for growth.

 Transunion CIBIL has also announced a MSME Health Index based on two parameters – growth and development. Growth is based on the enterprises ability to access credit while development is assessed on the basis of NPA status in banks.

 Rating institutions are yet to come out with rating specifically targeting the manufacturing MSMEs. There are several issues in rating mechanisms and also the extension of guarantee by the CGTMSE. These need resolution for easy access to credit.

 Digitization of all enterprises does not brook delay. Telangana Government entered into an arrangement to provide free accounting software to 20000 enterprises to accelerate digitization. This will certainly bring transparency, accountability, and better compliance of the lending institutions’ terms and conditions of sanction thus rebuilding the lost trust among the banks and MSMEs.

 TIHCL is a co-lending institution and the banks that are interested to speed up their processes of revival and restructuring and take assistance for monitoring and supervision of their MSME assets are welcome to seek our support. Nothing comes free. But the costs that the enterprises and banks incur in their collaborative efforts with us are far minimal and we assure that their NPA portfolio would turn performing with their association with us.

 TIHCL has tailor made loan products for various types of stress faced by the MSEs and for women start-ups and for cluster-based units. Margin loan assistance, Critical amount finance, Margin money for start-ups, working capital requirements for the other types of enterprises. Every enterprise is digitised for its operations under our direction and support. It is for the units and banks to take advantage of our presence. Rates of interest range between 9 and 10 percent.

 TIHCL is keen on ensuring sustainability of enterprises through timely counselling, mentoring and advisory services on a continuing basis and this is our USP.

(This is the text of my address at the MSME Summit held by the CII-Hyderabad on the 7th November, 2020)