Risk Appetite: The pathway for profit.

INTRODUCTION

This fiscal, the whole nation started off with a bang. Election euphoria ended with the grand announcement of single largest party in majority ascending to power after a gap of over two decades. A cultural transformation started off with Narendra Modi bowing before the Parliamentary stairs in reverence. Then there was historical swearing in of the Prime Minister, the first ever in independent India with all the invited SARC countries representing their nations for that ceremony. Minimum government and maximum governance, bringing down inflation, policy stability and clean government are all promises held out. All the Secretaries to the Government have been asked to make a presentation to the Prime Minister the status of various projects, in case of delays causes for the delays, when and how they are likely to be completed and for such closure what plan of action is with them and what supports are needed. To me, it looked as though a new tough CEO is assuming charge of GoI Inc. The risks at the moment would appear to have been addressed up front: first, a change in the culture; second, outlook and third, outspokenness and fourth, firm on implementation agenda. Objectives would be set; strategies would be discussed by the various ministries; tracking and tracing mechanism would be put in place; stress tests would be applied; and accountability and visibility with real time monitors and reports would follow eventually. The PMO website appeared within minutes of the swearing in ceremony beamed by all the TV channels. The whole world watched the biggest democracy in full strength determined to change the destiny of India into a formidable political and economic power. Why am I starting my paper with all this known stuff? The reason: a weak financial sector and strong economy can hardly co-exist; and the biggest deficits of all, the TRUST DEFICIT is fast eroding.

The New Governments and the Loan Waiver

The New Governments and the Loan Waivers
B. Yerram Raju & M.L. Kanta Rao

Competitive populism compelled Rahul Gandhi while canvassing for the Congress party announced that he would write off up to Rs.2lakhs all individual farm loans. So did KCR, the CM-designate of the upcoming Telangana promised waiver of crop loans up to Rs.1lakh per farmer.

Seemandhra farmers are in a mood to rejoice: Voter bait won’t be voter wait – Chandrababu Naidu promises to sign the crop loan waiver for farmers as the first file as CM of Seemandhra (it would be however nice to christen the new State as Telugu Nadu). in Navyandhra and Nava Bharat where from now on people would be counting on the election promises of the winning parties, there will be no compromise on the promise. The NDA that met in Delhi on the eve of electing the leader of the BJP parliamentary party Viz., Narendra Modi, declared unequivocally that the poll promises would be realised and all the partners of NDA promised full support for the same.

The Winner and the Vanquished

The Winner and the Vanquished

Decidedly the World’s greatest democracy has just finished its biggest General Elections – the fifteenth in a row. It attracted lot of attention of the western media – the Economist, the Financial Times, The Guardian, The New York Times just to name a few. Money, liquor and raining promises like never before greeted the electorate. It was however the last NDA alliance – the TDP-BJP combine with an emotional entrant into the political confabulations that has been greeted with enthusiasm from some and contempt by several. Narendra Modi the first ever PM designate to bow to the Parliament stairs before his entry, demonstrated cultural excellence unparalleled setting the tone for virtuous move forward.

An Open Letter to Modi

Prime Minister designate Narendra Modi inherits bad governance; almost empty treasury as the UPA-FM has drawn in advance all the dividends of the PSUs six months in advance (2014-15 first half) to arrive at the magic figure of fiscal deficit of 4.5 percent promised by him; inflationary economy contributed by more the supply side factors; lowest growth of manufacturing sector continuing for the preceding two quarters; the burden of Food Security Act and the MNREGS to which the BJP is also a party; chaotic primary education to higher education; scamsters sitting right in front of him in the Parliament benches; election promises of the NDA partners hitting the roof and unnerving agriculture sector. At the moment, on the external front, the issues do not pose urgency.

Manifesto for Agricultural Sector: Agenda for Future

Manifesto for Agricultural Sector: Agenda for Future

‘If farming fails nothing else succeeds in this country.’ Economic growth of this predominantly agrarian country depends on agricultural growth.

Target 6% growth of farm sector for an assured double digit sustainable growth of the economy.

Allocate Budget – at least 10% of the outlay should be devoted for agricultural sector.

Present Agricultural Budget in all the predominantly agricultural States preceded by Agricultural Survey.

The Myth of Poverty Alleviation

The Myth of Poverty Alleviation

When the General Elections to clearly the biggest democracy in the world are on cards with the participation of over 83million voters all eyes will be on the agenda of the contesting political parties. One item, for sure, is poverty alleviation. The UPA during its decade rule has been trumpeting on taking the growth trajectory northwards and as a consequence reduction of poverty. Claims and actual achievements apart, is it possible to eliminate poverty in any part of the world? Has economic growth contributed to its elimination in any part of the World ever since the end of Second World War?

Managing NPAs: Cure worse than the Disease

RBI started anew a failed initiative in an amplified form after a make-believe consultation document. Not all the perfumes of Arabia would clean the stench of INR 5trn. The SMA categorization for monitoring the stressed assets had its origin in 2002 itself.

But the moot question: is micromanagement going to be the solution that failed to impose a regulatory information system? The pressures on the senior Managers in attending the DLBCs, SLBCs and host of others would leave little time for the now introduced JLFs which in turn have to seek investors for stressed assets’ buy.

If wishes were horses voters would be riders.

The Budget is neither Vote Catching nor Vote on Account

Vote on Account Budget 14-15 presented today is more an accounting than budget as all the income and expenditure for the next six months has to be spent on account. What the Union Finance Minister has done is gimmicks or jugglery of figures when it came to Fiscal Deficit. He postponed payments due during the last three months and demanded advance payments of dividend from all the banks and the PSUs and even asked the RBI to transfer its surplus to contain the deficit. In the process what would happen is that the government that comes to power has a responsibility to pay up all the pent-up dues and forego all the receipts for the six months April –October 2014 if they are at the expected level because they were all on the basis of some assumptions of revenues and expenses projected for the next financial year. He is for sure going to handover empty treasury to his unknown successor.

Nobody knows how the domestic and global environment would turn out. But the hope is that it would be better if we are to go by some global trends.