Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Politician promises and Regulator disposes

Politician promises and Regulator disposes

There is an old adage that a farmer is born in debt, lives in debt and dies in debt. No farmer has liquidity when he wants cash in hand, for it lies either in land or stock. Farmer is today a part of the rule book, both with Governments and the financial institutions and the regulator.

AP and Telangana both the States, after formation, did not lose a minute in negotiating with the RBI the way forward to realising their hasty loan waiver promises. The States tried to bargain hard for restructuring the loans till they could find resources to fully credit the promised waiver amount into farmers’ loan accounts. The logic for waiver could be disputable but the request for restructuring on the sovereign guarantee has less reason to be faulted. This cannot be dubbed away as ’crony socialism’ – the meaning of which the creator of the phrase alone has much to explain.

The history of farm loan waivers – a sad one—politically motivated could have been resisted by the regulator even during the years 1990 and 2008. When the commercial banks were writing off loans of various other sectors but failed to respond to the farmers’ requests even amidst a do-or-die situation, the governments took law into their hands and claimed equity in debt treatment. In a political economy, howsoever puritan the economists are, the will of the politician prevails, particularly in democracy.

Monday, July 14, 2014



SMEs in Union Budget 2014-15 – Implementation Challenges

This path-breaking Union Budget providing discontinuing continuity on several fronts has concretized all the promises in the BJP manifesto unfolding the vision of the Modi Government. Its allocations reflect pragmatism in that some projects got funds for Detailed Project Reports while others of long term nature that can only make a beginning got symbolic outlays.

Manufacturing sector that is just showing signs of revival with its growth rate touching 4.7% in May 2014 reversing the negative trend of growth till the end of March 2014 got a shot in the arm. Of particular relevance is the attention paid to the MSME sector.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Emerging Economies, Free Trade and Poverty


Poverty alleviation has been on the global agenda for the last seven and half decades. The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, United Nations, several developing nations and Developed Nations have made it as an important agenda. But the US, Japan, Germany and even China that registered consistent high growth during the last two decades could not be free of the poor. Asian Development Bank that has been spending billions on the agenda of poverty alleviation has poverty dancing right in front of its huge mansion in Manila. It could not show case even a small nation rid of poverty. Poverty can at best be reduced and not eliminated – this is one lesson that the economic history teaches us.

All the conferences on poverty alleviation throughout the World are held in Five Star or Seven Star Hotels and in Air-conditioned Conference Halls for hours and days together. Intellectuals gather to discuss their poverty and other’s poverty. Goals in one name or other and common agenda across the nations – e.g., Millennium Development Goals – are discussed and settled. Several researchers, bureaucrats, government and non-government organizations, donor institutions etc., decide to spend billions of dollars on the agenda. So much is the scope for employment provided by the poor across the world. Poor are the biggest employers in the world. Interest keeps renewing on poverty alleviation agenda – and now with focus on emerging economies and free trade. This paper is divided into two parts: part 1, dealing with free trade and emerging economies and Part 2, dealing with poverty with specific reference to India.

Risk Appetite: The pathway for profit.


INTRODUCTION

This fiscal, the whole nation started off with a bang. Election euphoria ended with the grand announcement of single largest party in majority ascending to power after a gap of over two decades. A cultural transformation started off with Narendra Modi bowing before the Parliamentary stairs in reverence. Then there was historical swearing in of the Prime Minister, the first ever in independent India with all the invited SARC countries representing their nations for that ceremony. Minimum government and maximum governance, bringing down inflation, policy stability and clean government are all promises held out. All the Secretaries to the Government have been asked to make a presentation to the Prime Minister the status of various projects, in case of delays causes for the delays, when and how they are likely to be completed and for such closure what plan of action is with them and what supports are needed. To me, it looked as though a new tough CEO is assuming charge of GoI Inc. The risks at the moment would appear to have been addressed up front: first, a change in the culture; second, outlook and third, outspokenness and fourth, firm on implementation agenda. Objectives would be set; strategies would be discussed by the various ministries; tracking and tracing mechanism would be put in place; stress tests would be applied; and accountability and visibility with real time monitors and reports would follow eventually. The PMO website appeared within minutes of the swearing in ceremony beamed by all the TV channels. The whole world watched the biggest democracy in full strength determined to change the destiny of India into a formidable political and economic power. Why am I starting my paper with all this known stuff? The reason: a weak financial sector and strong economy can hardly co-exist; and the biggest deficits of all, the TRUST DEFICIT is fast eroding.

Sunday, June 1, 2014

The New Governments and the Loan Waiver

The New Governments and the Loan Waivers
B. Yerram Raju & M.L. Kanta Rao

Competitive populism compelled Rahul Gandhi while canvassing for the Congress party announced that he would write off up to Rs.2lakhs all individual farm loans. So did KCR, the CM-designate of the upcoming Telangana promised waiver of crop loans up to Rs.1lakh per farmer.

Seemandhra farmers are in a mood to rejoice: Voter bait won’t be voter wait – Chandrababu Naidu promises to sign the crop loan waiver for farmers as the first file as CM of Seemandhra (it would be however nice to christen the new State as Telugu Nadu). in Navyandhra and Nava Bharat where from now on people would be counting on the election promises of the winning parties, there will be no compromise on the promise. The NDA that met in Delhi on the eve of electing the leader of the BJP parliamentary party Viz., Narendra Modi, declared unequivocally that the poll promises would be realised and all the partners of NDA promised full support for the same.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

The Winner and the Vanquished

The Winner and the Vanquished

Decidedly the World’s greatest democracy has just finished its biggest General Elections – the fifteenth in a row. It attracted lot of attention of the western media – the Economist, the Financial Times, The Guardian, The New York Times just to name a few. Money, liquor and raining promises like never before greeted the electorate. It was however the last NDA alliance – the TDP-BJP combine with an emotional entrant into the political confabulations that has been greeted with enthusiasm from some and contempt by several. Narendra Modi the first ever PM designate to bow to the Parliament stairs before his entry, demonstrated cultural excellence unparalleled setting the tone for virtuous move forward.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

An Open Letter to Modi

Prime Minister designate Narendra Modi inherits bad governance; almost empty treasury as the UPA-FM has drawn in advance all the dividends of the PSUs six months in advance (2014-15 first half) to arrive at the magic figure of fiscal deficit of 4.5 percent promised by him; inflationary economy contributed by more the supply side factors; lowest growth of manufacturing sector continuing for the preceding two quarters; the burden of Food Security Act and the MNREGS to which the BJP is also a party; chaotic primary education to higher education; scamsters sitting right in front of him in the Parliament benches; election promises of the NDA partners hitting the roof and unnerving agriculture sector. At the moment, on the external front, the issues do not pose urgency.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Manifesto for Agricultural Sector: Agenda for Future

Manifesto for Agricultural Sector: Agenda for Future

‘If farming fails nothing else succeeds in this country.’ Economic growth of this predominantly agrarian country depends on agricultural growth.
Target 6% growth of farm sector for an assured double digit sustainable growth of the economy.
Allocate Budget – at least 10% of the outlay should be devoted for agricultural sector.
Present Agricultural Budget in all the predominantly agricultural States preceded by Agricultural Survey.